by John Hawkins | August 2, 2012 3:39 pm
“If the election were held today, I think it would be close, but I think we’d win. And we now have 99 days left. If I can say that every day for the next 99 days, then we’ll be able to embark on the next phase of this journey.” –Barack Obama
Know why Obama is wrong about that?
Because the voters are already familiar with Obama. They know him. If they’re undecided even though they know him, it’s because they’re looking for an excuse to vote against him or at a minimum, they’re leaning that way unless Obama can get them back onboard.
What that means is if the election were held today, the undecided voters wouldn’t break 50/50, they’d break heavily against Obama. Keep in mind that Obama is already behind nationally: according to Rasmussen,
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
If the election were held today, Romney would probably win by roughly the same margin that Obama beat McCain in 2008.
Want to know what states Obama can feel pretty good about? They’re the states where he’s over 50%. There are: 13 of those states: and unless you stretch the definition of “swing state” enough to include Minnesota and New Jersey, there’s not a crucial state in the bunch.
When you consider that for the most part, Romney is still keeping his powder dry and soaking up the cash instead of going full-tilt, the signs are growing more ominous for Obama by the day.
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