by John Hawkins | October 4, 2019 3:24 pm
Joe Biden has been the front runner in the Democratic primary from the time he got into the race until recently. However, Biden has always been gaffe-prone, has never inspired passion and doesn’t seem to have any message other than “vote for me because I am electable.”
As the primary has gone on, the activist wing of the party has started to rally around Elizabeth Warren. She’s beating Biden in Iowa and in some general election polls; she’s also heavily favored to beat him in betting markets. Given that the supporters of every other left-wing candidate that drops out are more likely to go for Warren than Biden, that makes a lot of sense.
For Trump, this is a good thing for a couple of reasons.
First of all, Biden does much better head-to-head against him than Elizabeth Warren.
Second, Biden’s pitch in the 2020 election practically writes itself. To other Democrats, he’d portray himself as a third term for Obama. To independents, he’d say that he’s a Democrat, but he’s not one of the crazy socialists who’d make radical changes. He’d tell people that if you vote him in, then we’d see a “return to normalcy.” He’d be bipartisan and work with Republicans. No more crazy tweets. You’d know exactly what the president is going to do.
Is that true? Mostly no, but that would be his message and if they believe it, it could probably be appealing to independents turned off by Trump.
Elizabeth Warren, who could fairly be called the front runner at this point, can’t run on that same message because she’d be the most radical presidential nominee the Democrats put up since George McGovern. Of course, this would inspire liberal Democrats to turn out to vote for her, but given how much they hate Trump, I’m not sure that she would significantly increase turnout. Moreover, Trump is setting fund raising records already and Warren’s unyielding hostility to Wall Street would probably send even more money into his coffers.
We could add that not only is she not very likable, but candidates from Massachusetts like Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and Mitt Romney haven’t had much luck on the national stage in recent years.
You can read the rest at BizPac Review.
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