New The Hill Poll: 12 Freshman Democrat Held Districts Show Major GOP Gains

by Warner Todd Huston | October 6, 2010 9:00 am

On Wednesday The Hill[1] reported on a new poll it has conducted of the 2010 midterms with initial focus on 12 districts held by freshmen Democrats and the news isn’t good for those incumbent Dems scrutinized. On the other hand, the poll seems to show that it isn’t pat that Republicans will necessarily run away with it all either.

On Wednesday The Hill reported that in 11 of the initial 12 races polled, Republicans are leading Democrat incumbents. In the 12th, the candidates are tied. While this may seem good for the GOP the downside is that none of the Republicans are polling over 50%.

However, a long held axiom states that an incumbent that can’t reach at lest 50% in the polls generally is in major trouble for re-election and if these polls show GOP leads in each case with not one of these incumbent Dems reaching the 50% mark, that says quite a lot about these midterms.

According to The Hill, the poll also shows that Obamacare is hurting Democrats. “A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year.”

To the question of repeal of Obamacare, 56% agreed with repeal and only 32% said no to repeal.

The Hill promised that this poll reveals, “insights previously held as guarded secrets by campaigns and party committees.”

Overall the poll shows that 45% of respondents say that if the election were being held today they’d vote for Republicans while 39% said they’d pull the lever for Democrats. Interestingly, female respondents, typically a Democrat stronghold, almost broke even between the two parties with 42% saying they’d vote Democrat and 41% going with the GOP.

Further it was found that the majority disapprove of Obama’s work as president. 55% disapprove while 42% approve. Congress fared worse with a disapproval rate of 76% with a paltry 20% approving.

To focus on only one race, the Illinois 11th (Obama’s home state), first-time candidate Republican Adam Kinzinger is leading incumbent Democrat Debbie Halvoson 49% to 31% with self-professed independents breaking at an even larger rate in favor of the Republican 53% to 24%. Even women are breaking in favor of Kinzinger and against the female Democrat 44% to 33%.

With less than a month to go, Kinzinger seems ready to beat the Democrat incumbent in deep blue Illinois with room to spare even as he might not run away with it.

The other races reflect similar results.

The poll includes a look at the following races:

The early part of the poll is conducted in association with the American Natural Gas Alliance.

  1. The Hill:

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