BOMBSHELL Election Day Poll Should Make Hillary Campaign Panic

by Terresa Monroe-Hamilton | November 8, 2016 9:52 am

According to Investor’s Business Daily[1], Trump leads by 2 points. The LA poll has him up by three. While that might make Hillary’s campaign panic, it probably won’t. Every other poll out there pretty much shows Clinton leading. But well within the margin of error. Frankly, I have no idea who will win today. It’s just too close to call at this point.

If you take Gary Johnson and Jill Stein out of the mix, IBD has Clinton leading by 1 point. The state polls are not any better. They are all over the place today. This is a dumpster fire and a cliff hanger. Trump has a significant lead among Independent voters who are turning out in record numbers this time. Everyone across America will be glued to their seats waiting as the results come in state by state tonight. Tense is an understatement here.


From Investor’s Business Daily Politics:

As voters go to the actual polls to cast their ballots in what has been an unprecedented presidential election, Republican Donald Trump held onto a 2-point lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton — 45% to 43% — in a four-way matchup, according to the final IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll[3]. Libertarian Gary Johnson captures 8% support from likely voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 1 point — 43% to 42%.

Unrounded, the numbers are: Trump 45.0%, Clinton 43.4%, Johnson 7.6%, and Stein 2.0% — which means Trump has a lead of 1.6 points. The final IBD/TIPP poll showed an interesting gain in support for Johnson, who climbed from just shy of 4% four days ago.

“As we complete the final days of the tracking poll, we see both Republicans and independents with relatively greater enthusiasm compared to Democrats. The registration advantage Democrats typically have will likely be neutralized by increased enthusiasm by Republicans, which is similar to 2004, when the voters split 37% Democrats and 37% Republican on Election Day. When it comes to candidate support, party-line vote will likely cancel each other,” said Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence[4], which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll. “We also expect independent turnout to be robust and significantly higher than in recent elections, and Trump has an 8-point advantage over Clinton among these voters.”

The final IBD poll included 1,107 likely voters and is based on weighted results of 361 Democrats, 333 Republicans and 381 people who identify as Independents or other. The final poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, was conducted from Nov. 4 through Nov. 7. The poll shows Clinton doing better among women (44% to 40%), minorities (64% to 13%), urban voters (56% to 25%), the nonreligious (55% to 22%) and union households (48% to 41%).

Trump does better among men (46% to 38%), whites (51% to 34%), investors (48% to 42%), rural voters (58% to 29%) and those who describe themselves as working class (43% to 42%) or lower-class households (41% to 30%). Trump also does better among Independents (39% to 31%), with Johnson capturing a strong 16% of this group’s support.

Clinton may very well win this, but it will be by a very small margin and I would not count Trump out just yet. It would not surprise me tonight if he won it all. While Clinton’s campaign may not panic over these polls, you can bet she’s panicking over Trump in general. Some are still predicting a Brexit style outcome. Tonight we will see.


  1. According to Investor’s Business Daily:
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  3. IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll:
  4. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence:
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