Great News: Trump’s Really Not Running Against Clinton

Can you guess who Trump says he’s running against in this election cycle? Since the headline already says it is not Hillary, you probably guessed “Republicans,”, which sure seems the case since he and his followers spend a lot of time going after Republican voters and elected officials. Nope

(The Hill) Donald Trump said Saturday that his true opponent in the general election is the media.

“I’m not running against crooked Hillary, I’m running against the crooked media,” Trump said at a rally in Fairfield, Conn. “That’s what I’m running against, I’m not running against crooked Hillary.”

Trump has repeatedly lashed out at media that he calls “dishonest” over the course of his campaign.

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Earlier Saturday, he bashed the New York Times after a report came out in which sources characterized Trump as “sullen” and struggling to recover in light of lagging poll numbers.

He renewed those attacks on the Times at the rally Saturday, saying he’s considering revoking their credentials to cover his rallies.

“I’ll tell you in particular lately we have a newspaper that’s failing badly, its losing a lot of money, its gonna be out of business very soon: the New York Times,” he said.

How soon till we get a meme from Trump supporters that refusing to vote for Trump is a vote for the media? He’s spent a lot of time bashing the media, which has made many very upset. And, let’s face it, the media does support Democrats at roughly a 90% rate. Regardless, this seems rather freeing, since, if I refuse to give my vote to Trump, while also not checking the box for Hillary, the meme about electing Hillary would be moot. I’m electing the media! Which is not actually on the ballot.

This is apparently a case of Trump just being himself. Which may have worked well during the primaries, but won’t work a lick during the general. Of course, during the primaries, he created such division among Republican voters that there are tons who will refuse to vote for him, and that’s on Trump and his supporters.

Interestingly, the “always correct” model predicts a Trump win

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.

Many Trump supporters are crowing about this poll. Of course, many, including Excitable Jim Hoft, conveniently ignore the rest

However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.

“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.

We’re talking electoral vote blowout under the bus. Because, Trump is running a campaign

  • with no spending on ads less than 90 days from the election
  • he has virtually no ground campaign
  • he has almost no campaign headquarters (I called the NC number on Friday and Saturday, no answer)
  • he’s spending time in deep blue states instead of swing states
  • he’s turning GOP states blue
  • he’s averse to doing any get out the vote programs
  • he spends a lot of time bashing Republicans
  • he’s apparently running against the media, not Hillary

You know, there are some #NeverTrump folks in deep blue states like NY and California who don’t feel bad in the least about not voting for the Republican candidate, because they know their vote is meaningless in those states. I’m starting to feel the same way in North Carolina. Trump is finding ways to push people away. Most of his campaign events seem to be all about placating his base. These are insider rallies. And the results will be disastrous in November.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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