Everything Is Going Our Way, But….

02 Jul, 2010 by John Hawkins

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Although I don’t always agree with Charlie Cook, I do have to admit he’s a very smart guy. He also makes a living calling elections and he’s pretty darn good at it. With that in mind, take a look at what Cook is saying about the elections in November,

The numbers were from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted June 17-21 among 1,000 adults by pollsters Peter Hart (a Democrat) and Bill McInturff (a Republican). Among the registered voters in the survey, Republicans led by 2 points on the generic congressional ballot test, 45 percent to 43 percent. This may not sound like a lot, given that Democrats now hold 59 percent of House seats. When this same poll was taken in June 2008, however, Democrats led by 19 points, 52 percent to 33 percent.

That drop-off should be enough to sober Democrats up, but the next set of data was even more chilling.

…Hart and McInturff then looked at the change among the most-interested voters from the same survey in 2008. Although 2010 is a “down-shifting” election, from a high-turnout presidential year to a lower-turnout midterm year, one group was more interested in November than it was in 2008: those who had voted for Republican John McCain for president. And the groups that showed the largest decline in interest? Those who voted for Barack Obama — liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates, those living in either the Northeast or West, and younger voters 18 to 34 years of age. These are the “Holy Mackerel” numbers.

Among all voters, there has been a significant swing since 2008 when Democrats took their new majority won in 2006 to an even higher level. But when you home in on those people in this survey who are most likely to vote, the numbers are devastating. The NBC/WSJ survey, when combined with a previously released NPR study of likely voters in 70 competitive House districts by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger, point to an outcome for Democrats that is as serious as a heart attack. Make no mistake about it: There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge.

The good news is, if you look at the numbers, everything is pointing towards a big GOP year. So, barring some unforeseen stroke of good luck for the Democrats, does that mean the GOP is going to take over the House and get close in the Senate?

No, not at all.

Keep in mind that the GOP has gotten its behind handed to it for two straight elections. That has given the Democrats a huge cushion. We’d need to take 39 seats to take over the House. Can this be done? Yes. Will it be done? I want to say “yes,” but I have to tell you, not every factor is leaning in our favor. For example, the GOP is behind in the money game. There will undoubtedly be seats we could win in November that will be left on the table because the money’s not there for advertising. I’d also add that there’s very little that I’ve seen from the people in charge of the Republican Party in DC that gives me confidence that they can mastermind a perfect victory strategy to take advantage of their limited resources.

So, I have a simple question: What are YOU doing to help block Obama, Pelosi, and Reid in November? Are you volunteering on any campaigns? Are you contributing to any groups that’ll be helping conservative candidates? Are you going to be making calls for campaigns during the “Get out the Vote” push in the final few days? Do you have a yard sign in your yard? Are you doing anything to check these corrupt, socialistic thugs who’re running the country? If not, why not? Your country needs you and it’s time to step up.