It’s Just A Small Convention Bounce. Don’t Get Freaked.

by John Hawkins | September 10, 2012 5:57 am

Obama is a little ahead of Mitt Romney and people are getting nervous. Keep a few things in mind.

1) Obama was expected to get a small bounce from the convention. He did.

2) Romney’s massive ad campaign in the swing states has just started and unlike McCain, who was outspent 3-to-1, Romney will either run even with Obama or outspend him in every state that matters in the final two months.

3) Keep in mind that Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan at this point in the campaign[1].

So, when you should start to worry?

In late September, early October, if Obama is sitting somewhere around 46% to 47% in reputable polls of likely voters, he’s in trouble. If they’re knotted up at around 48%, it’s probably going to be a really close election. If Obama still has a lead at that point and is polling at 49% or above, Mitt’s the one in trouble.

We’re in home stretch now and September and October are when the numbers really start to move. Very soon, we’re going to have a much clearer picture of how this election will play out.

PS: For the people who think Mitt should already be 4-5 points ahead, remember that some of us told you in the primaries that electability isn’t Mitt’s strong suit. Mitt’s also not a bold campaigner and he’s not temperamentally inclined to set up a clear contrast to Obama. What he does do well is raise money and run a disciplined, strategic campaign. That, he’s doing and over the next few weeks is when that strategy starts to pay off.

  1. Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan at this point in the campaign:

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