CNN Poll Has Hillary Leading On Several Key Metrics

by William Teach | June 21, 2016 7:21 am

This is the time when we will start being inundated with polls, and something to very much consider is that national head to head polls are not a true metric of who will win the general election. It is the State polls where the rubber meets the road. Again, it’s that pesky Electoral College thing. That said, there are a few concerning things for Trump and his supporters, and even for those who are not Trump supporters, but would prefer that Hillary and the Democrats lose

(CNN[1]) Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump by a 47% to 42% margin in the race for the presidency, according to a CNN/ORC Poll [2]released Tuesday, and just 22% of registered voters say their minds could change between now and November.

Clinton continues to lead Trump when Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party are included in the list of options. Nationwide in that match-up, Clinton holds 42%, Trump 38%, Johnson 9% and Stein 7%.

As CNN notes, neither Johnson nor Stein (who?) will qualify for every ballot, but could play a big part in swing states. That could mean Bad Things for Trump.

One other thing to consider about this poll is it that it consists of registered voters, not likely voters.

More Clinton backers say they have made up their minds (37% of all registered voters are solid Clinton voters) than Trump voters (33% of voters are firmly Trump). Among those voters who say they are not settled on a candidate in the two-way race, more than one-third choose Johnson (23%) or Stein (12%) when asked the four-way match up.

Clinton voters care not a whit that she is a horrible person who left four Americans to die in Benghazi and then lied about it to the American people and the families of those killed. Nor do they care that she is under criminal investigation by the FBI for violation of multiple federal laws, including the Espionage Act.

Here’s where it gets really interesting, though

Clinton holds an edge over Trump on handling several issues, including foreign policy, immigration, trade with other countries, nominating justices to the Supreme Court, and issues relating to the rights of women and of gays and lesbians. She’s also seen as better able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief and to exercise good judgment in a crisis.

Yeah, that’s right, immigration. Trump has made immigration a hallmark of his campaign, it’s what excited people to become Trumpers…well, building a wall, anyhow…and she beats him 50-45%. She slaughters him on foreign policy 57-36%. And 50-45% on foreign trade.

That said, Trump does beat Hillary on terrorism, the economy, and gun rights. He also beats her on being a strong and decisive leader 47-43%/ Also, “honest and trustworthy” is a 45-37% winner.

But, temperament to be POTUS? Handle the responsibility? Shares your values? Exercises good judgment in a crisis? All Hillary wins. These are not good indicators for a November win.

Even with Trump’s edge on those key issues a majority say they ultimately expect Clinton to prevail in November: 55% say they think she will win the presidency, 38% think Trump will.

Things can change over time, for good or bad. The poll does highlight that of the Republicans polled 51% want Trump as their candidate, 48% want someone else.

Overall, 66% think Hillary did something wrong with her email.

The sampling is interesting, though. 30% Democrat, 23% Republican, and 47% who say they are Independents. And the sampling error is a whopping +/- 8.5 (or less).

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove[3]. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach[4].

  1. CNN:
  2. CNN/ORC Poll :
  3. Pirate’s Cove:
  4. @WilliamTeach:

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