Electability: Obama trails Santorum but leads Romney in FL, OH, VA, NC

by Wintery Knight | March 19, 2012 12:00 am

Ask any supporter of Mitt Romney why they are supporting him and you will get one answer – electability. That’s what people keep hearing in the media – even on Fox News. Electability, electability, electability. But what happens when you look at the actual poll numbers in battleground states?

It’s a: Rasmussen Reports poll[1]: – a reliable poll.

Excerpt:

President Obama now trails former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by four points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.: The president continues to hold a modest lead in those states.

Santorum leads the president 48% to 44% in the so-called Core Four states. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and two percent (2%) are undecided. This marks a shift from: last week, when the president was slightly ahead of Santorum.:  (To see survey question wording,: click here.)

Obama remains ahead of Romney 46% to 42%, showing no change from last week. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

(Want a: free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on: Twitter: or: Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 10-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Of course Obama is going to win in liberal states like Massachusetts and Vermont and Washington. Those are blue states. States that Obama is guaranteed to win. What determines “electability” is the polls in swing states. The states that determine who will win the election.

Now consider this -: Rick Santorum does better with women and independents[2]: in Florida.

Excerpt:

In the biggest prize among November’s swing states, the latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters: shows[3]: Rick Santorum faring slightly better than Mitt Romney versus President Obama. In Florida, Santorum trails Obama by 2 percentage points (45 to 43 percent), while Romney trails Obama by 3 points (46 to 43 percent). Florida, by far the largest swing state, now has as many electoral votes as the state of New York (29).

Interestingly, Santorum is faring better than Romney among women in the Sunshine State.: Among women, Santorum trails Obama by 11 points (52 to 41 percent), while Romney trails Obama by 13 points (53 to 40 percent). Santorum is also faring better than Romney among independents and among likely voters who make close to the median income. Among independents, Santorum trails Obama by 19 points (50 to 31 percent), while Romney trails Obama by 24 points (55 to 31 percent).: Among those making between $40,000 and $60,000, Santorum leads Obama by 4 points (49 to 45 percent), while Romney trails Obama by 3 points (50 to 47 percent).

The people in the mainstream media keep telling us that Romney is electable, and that women and independents like Romney. But at least some of the data shows that this is not true.: Obviously, the mainstream media sides with Mitt Romney – his record is liberal just like they are liberal. Especially on social issues. When you look at people like Jennifer Rubin, Charles Krauthammer, George Will, etc. – these are not social conservatives. So of course they like Mitt Romney. Everyone they know likes Mitt Romney. We should not be listening to mainstream media personalities from New York, Los Angeles and Washington D.C.

Another consideration is that we do not want to do what the Democrats expect. Obama wants to run against the rich. None of his attacks will work on a blue collar, pro-manufacturing conservative like Rick Santorum. We should not run a candidate that Obama expects. We should force Obama to come clean on his unpopular stances on social issues. We should not run a candidate who looks and sounds like a Wall Street banker. We should run a candidate who wants to cut manufacturing taxes down to zero. That’s a message that plays well in blue collar mid-western states – the states that will decide the election.