Bachmann Wins Ames Straw Poll – Breaking It All Down

by William Teach | August 14, 2011 8:37 am

That darned “tea-inspired[1]” woman just keeps showing up and doing well

(Washington Post[2]) Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann scored a victory in the GOP Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, a win likely to provide her considerable momentum as the 2012 race ramps up.

“What we saw happen today is this is the very first step toward taking the White House in 2012, and you have just sent a message that Barack Obama will be a one-term president,” said Bachmann (R-Minn.) after her victory was announced.

The breakdown of the poll is thus (I’m going to break the story out into an ordered list)

  1. Bachmann took 4,823 votes, narrowly escaping a major upset at the hand of
  2. Texas Rep. Ron Paul who won 4,671 votes.
  3. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty placed third with 2,293, a showing that is likely to raise questions about his ability to continue in the contest.
  4. former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (1,567)
  5. businessman Herman Cain (1,456)
  6. Texas Gov. Rick Perry (718)
  7. former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (567)
  8. former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (385)
  9. former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (69)
  10. Rep. Thad McCotter (Mich.) (35)

What does it all mean? Well, as Nate Silver pointed out[3], the candidate who won or placed in the straw poll tended to win the GOP nomination more often then not. But, not always. So, for each candidate

I’ll still maintain that Romney is the front-runner to beat. Like all the candidates, he has his good points and bad points. But, he’s spent the last four years setting himself up for the win, and I do believe he could easily beat Obama, taking, at the least, every state George Bush won in 2004 (which would, of course, give him the win), and perhaps taking one or two that Kerry had won. If it shakes out that he gets the nomination, he’d be wise to pick Bachmann as his running mate. But, we’ve got a long way to go.

What are your thoughts?

Quick update: Fox News is reporting that Tim Pawlenty is going to drop out.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove[4]. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach[5].

  1. tea-inspired:
  2. Washington Post:
  3. Nate Silver pointed out:
  4. Pirate’s Cove:
  5. @WilliamTeach:

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