by John Hawkins | November 5, 2002 7:16 pm
Election Radio Feed And Guest Spot: I will be listening to the Stop Democrats Live Internet Feed tonight along with checking Drudge and a few other sources. Expect more updates right here as the night goes along.
Stop Democrats has me tentatively scheduled to do Senate analysis tonight at 8:40 PM EST. Feel free to tune in to hear me and keep watching RWN tonight until Midnight if you want the latest coverage of the Senate races along with a few other key contests.
***Update***: Drudge has yanked the exit polling data he had up. Apparently, that’s because the Voter News Service is now saying “it cannot guarantee the accuracy of the analysis.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see the mainstream media rip Drudge and the rest of the internet media for posting inaccurate results.
***Update #2***: Remember when the early polling data said Dole was behind and I told you not to buy it? I was right — Dole wins. Jeb Bush wins early and by a big margin. That stings McAuliffe. Lautenburg won — that’s one seat the Dems managed to steal in the courts — so far. Chambliss is up 8% w/ 23% of districts reporting which is good news — too early to tell if it’ll hold. Sununu up 6% with 44% reporting. That’s another important one that’s looking good so far.
StopDemocrats.com kept me on for 35 minutes and that wore me out. I think it went pretty well though. I had a good time doing show and thanks to Stopdemocrats.com for having me on.
***Update #3***: Landrieu is currently at 43% in Louisiana. That means a run-off if the trend continues. Chambliss up 12% with 34% in. Looks good but it’s not over yet. According to the Corner, Shaheen concedes!!! If Chambliss and Sununu win I think we’re getting the Senate back!! YES!!!! Mitt Romney is projected to win the Gov’s race in Taxachustes. It’s looking good and everything is trending Republican! It’s not over til it’s over but things are going great so far…
***Update 4***: Not only did Jeb Bush win, but Katherine Harris is going to the House. The Dems have to hate that. Allard and Thune are up at about 33% of ballots in. Pryor is up big Arkansas but everyone expected that. Johnson has a 1% lead on Thune with about 33% in. That one is still up for grabs. Cornyn just won another one for the GOP in Texas. Some people thought this one would be close — not me. Ehrlich is up significantly up on Kennedy-Townsend in the Gov’s race in Maryland with 96% of the votes in and MSNBC still hasn’t called it for him — the mainstream media must be hating it. Fox calls it for Chambliss in Georgia! Yee-ha!
***Update #5***: Talent up 5 with 46% reporting. Kennedy Townsend has conceded. Ehrlich Wins Gov. of Maryland. Pryor wins in Arkansas (that was expected). With 9% reporting in California Davis 47% – Simon 44%. Allard up 52% – 44% over Strickland with 46% reporting! This is the #2 most vulnerable seat for GOP. If Allard wins, the Senate is ours!
Carville on CNN: “Three candidates will let us keep the Senate: the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost. I’m looking for some positive spin, but I can’t find any.”
***Update #6***: Talent up 5% with 51% of votes. Daschle “all but conceded” that he will not be majority leader after tonight according to MSNBC.
What’s left of significance in the Senate?
Colorado: (GOP Seat) Allard (R) 53% vs. Strickland (D) 44% w/ 48% of the vote.
Louisiana: (Dem Seat) Landrieu (D) needs 50% to avoid a run-off. She’s at 47% w/ 91% reporting. The 3 Republicans are combining for 50% of the vote.
Minnesota: (Dem Seat) Coleman (R) 52% vs. Mondale (D) 47% w/ 7% counted. This will be a slow vote count. We probably won’t know until tomorrow.
Missouri: (Dem Seat) Talent (R) 52% vs. Carnahan (D) 47% w/ 53% reporting.
South Dakota: (Dem Seat) Johnson (D) 50% vs. Thune (R) w/ 48% reporting.
***Update #7***: If everything continues as it’s trending it’ll be 51 (R) – 47 (D) – 1 (I) with LA. up for grabs in a December election. Allard wins! Coleman 54% – 43% Mondale w/ 12% reporting.
*******California Gov. Race: Simon (R) 46 – Davis (D) 45 w/ 16% counted*******
Earlier today on this one, I said…
“Davis vs. Simon in California: Everyone has written off Simon in this race but late polling data suggests this one may still be in play. Internal Republican polls put Bill Simon IN THE LEAD by 3 points. Moreover, the numbers from the California Field Poll show this one isn’t over yet…”
This would be a dagger to the heart if Simon pulls this out…
***Update #8***: Simon (R) 46% vs. Davis (D) 46% in the Cali Gov. race w/ 25% of the vote in.
Minnesota: (Dem Seat) Coleman (R) 53% vs. Mondale (D) 44% w/ 25% counted. This will be a slow vote count. We probably won’t know until tomorrow. (Looks good for GOP.)
Missouri: (Dem Seat) Talent (R) 50% vs. Carnahan (D) 49% w/ 94% reporting. (Too close to call. Don’t be surprised if there’s lawsuit here tomorrow if Talent wins.)
South Dakota: (Dem Seat) Johnson (D) 50% vs. Thune (R) 49% w/ 67% reporting. (Too close to call. 4000 vote difference. Don’t be surprised if there is a lawsuit if Thune pulls it out.)
Louisiana: (Dem Seat) Landrieu (D) needs 50% to avoid a run-off. She’s at 46% w/ 98% reporting. The 3 Republicans are combining for 51% of the vote. (Run-off in Dec.)
***Update #9***: Last update until tomorrow when I’ll post-election analysis…
Davis (D) 46% vs. Simon (R) 45% in the Cali Gov. race w/ 36% of the vote in.
Ramesh Ponnuru from the Corner had this to say, “Before people get too excited about Simon’s appearing to be up, note that only 6 percent of San Francisco County is in and Simon’s losing it by almost 50 points.”
Minnesota: (Dem Seat) Coleman (R) 52% vs. Mondale (D) 45% w/ 31% counted. This will be a slow vote count. We probably won’t know until tomorrow. (Looks good for GOP.)
Missouri: (Dem Seat) Talent (R) 50% vs. Carnahan (D) 49% w/ 95% reporting. (Too close to call. Don’t be surprised if there’s lawsuit here tomorrow if Talent wins.)
South Dakota: (Dem Seat) Thune (R) 50% vs. Johnson (D) 49% w/ 77% reporting. (Too close to call. 4000 vote difference. Don’t be surprised if there is a lawsuit if Thune pulls it out.)
Current Governor Count via Town Hall: GOP 23, Dems 17, Undecided 10
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