by John Hawkins | November 19, 2002 10:49 pm
The Coming Invasion Can’t Be Stopped By The UN: I know there are a lot of people who worry that Bush got snookered at the UN. They’re afraid that we’re now signed up for an unending round of inspections that the Iraqis will thwart at their leisure while the Kofi Annan, the Europeans, and the inspectors apologize for them.
That’s not going to happen.
If Bush is just looking for a causis belli, Iraq’s firing at out planes would certainly qualify under the new UN resolution. While the rest of the UN Security Council wouldn’t like it if Bush declared that those attacks violated the new UN resolution, they would go along with it if Bush decided to declare war based on those attacks. That’s because Bush is holding all the cards. Since Bush has that resolution from Congress and obviously has enough support in the region to attack with or without UN approval, he can hit Iraq whenever he pleases. That means getting UN approval is nothing more than cream for us. But if we go into Iraq without getting approval from the UN, it will destroy their credibility which would be a huge negative for the other nations on the UN Security Council and the nations that believe in the UN. Because of that, France, Russia, China, would go along with us if Bush decided to call them on Iraq’s breach of the resolution.
So since Bush isn’t going back to the UN Security Council now, that tells me he believes he has an ace in the hole coming up in December. My best guess is that we either believe Saddam is going to claim he has no WMD or he’s going to drastically under report what he has. Then, we’re going to send the inspectors to sites all over Iraq right after the 12/08/02 deadline where they’ll either be obstructed or will prove Saddam is lying. At that point we go back to the UN Security Council, they’ll get on board for an attack, and we’ll be ready to invade by January with all of our weak kneed allies on board.
Remember, Bush can’t afford to wait around to much longer. There is only so much cool weather left in Iraq and waiting until 2004 isn’t an option politically for Bush since he spent most of this year talking about how urgent it is for us to hit Iraq. Moreover, we’re not moving all those troops and equipment to the Middle-East just for show. So don’t pay a lot of attention to the mewlings of Kofi Annan, Hans Blix, and the euro-weenies, everything is still on track as I think we’ll see within a couple of weeks of the December 8th deadline passes.
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