2006 Election Prediction Rundown

by John Hawkins | December 20, 2006 4:41 am

I never took the time to go back and really take a hard look at the final predictions that were made right before the elections because until very recently, the final numbers weren’t in for the House. However, they’re in now and when all was said and done, the GOP lost 6 seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House.

So, who was right on target and who missed it by a mile? Well, here are the final pre-election predictions from around the net:


Robert Novak:[1] GOP -2
Mary Matalin:[2] GOP -3
Election Projection:[3] GOP -3 to -4
Republican Pollster Richard Wirthlin:[4] GOP -4
John Tabin:[5] GOP -4
Fred Barnes:[6] GOP -4
Republican Pollster Steve Lombardo:[7] GOP -4
Cook Political Report:[8] GOP -4 to -6
Stuart Rothenberg:[9] GOP -4 to -7
Tucker Carlson:[10] GOP -5
Paul Weyrich:[11] GOP -5
John Hawkins:[12] GOP -5
John Miller:[13] GOP -5
Larry Sabato:[14] GOP -6
William Kristol:[15] GOP -7


Election Projection:[3] GOP -11 to -18
Mary Matalin:[2] GOP -14
Robert Novak:[1] GOP -19
Cook Political Report:[8] GOP -20 to -35
John Tabin:[5] GOP -21
Republican Pollster Steve Lombardo:[7] GOP -21
Paul Weyrich:[16] GOP -22
John Hawkins:[12] GOP -22 to -29
Republican Pollster Richard Wirthlin:[4] GOP -25
Larry Sabato:[14] GOP -29
Fred Barnes:[6] GOP -30
Stuart Rothenberg:[17] GOP -30 to -36
Tucker Carlson:[10] GOP -36
William Kristol:[15] GOP -40

Actually, my predictions were close to being on target, but the best of the bunch was probably Larry Sabato who was perfect in the Senate and off by only 1 in the House.

  1. Robert Novak:: http://www.humanevents.com/evansnovak.php?id=17896
  2. Mary Matalin:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301469_2.html
  3. Election Projection:: http://www.electionprojection.com/archives110106.html#disclaimer110706
  4. Republican Pollster Richard Wirthlin:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301469_2.html
  5. John Tabin:: http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=10598
  6. Fred Barnes:: http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/893pltam.asp
  7. Republican Pollster Steve Lombardo:: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-senate-ratings_06.html
  8. Cook Political Report:: http://cookpolitical.com/
  9. Stuart Rothenberg:: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-senate-ratings_06.html
  10. Tucker Carlson:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301469_2.html
  11. Paul Weyrich:: http://redstate.com/stories/elections/2006/black_atlanta_democrats_admit_they_hate_white_people
  12. John Hawkins:: https://rightwingnews.com
  13. John Miller:: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NWRiZmU1YjMyYmVhZTA4NWY2ZWM0ODQ3OGEzMDliMWM=
  14. Larry Sabato:: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006110601
  15. William Kristol:: http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/893pltam.asp
  16. Paul Weyrich:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301469_2.html
  17. Stuart Rothenberg:: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-house-ratings_06.html

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