A Short Explanation Of Why McCain Is In Deep Trouble

by John Hawkins | October 3, 2008 10:02 am

I’ve been telling people McCain probably has a 20% chance of winning these days and that if he’s going to pull it off, he’s going to have to shake things up.

Why do I say that?

First off, the bailout bill seems to have sucked most of the life out of conservatives that Sarah Palin brought into the campaign. The Party is right back to “deenergized” again.

Next, the whole core issue of McCain’s campaign is that he is a leader that would be ready on Day One while Obama is a wet-behind-the-ears celebrity who wouldn’t be able to handle a crisis. Well, guess what? We had a crisis a month before the election and John McCain and Barack Obama handled it in almost exactly the same way — by supporting a wildly unpopular bailout plan. That strongly undercuts the central theme of McCain’s campaign.

Last but not least, the race is shaping up to be a repeat of 2000 and 2004. In other words, it’s very close and the map is very similar. Now, I want you to take a look at these states from Real Clear Politics; the election will be decided in these states.

What you’ll notice is that Obama is winning 7 of the 9 toss-up states and that all of them, with the exception of New Hampshire, went to Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

It’s also worth noting that New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7) both went Bush in 2004 and are likely to go Obama in 2008.

Incidentally, here’s what the national polls look like,

Notice how Obama is consistently up in the high forties while McCain is consistently in the low forties? Obama is closing the deal. It means that as people are making up their minds as we get closer to the end, they’re breaking Obama.

I’m not saying it’s over, because it’s not, but if the election were today, John McCain would lose. Unless something changes to get these numbers going back in the right direction — and that can still happen — Obama is going to win.

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