by John Hawkins | November 3, 2006 1:15 pm
Ken Mehlman got together with some bloggers this afternoon and he definitely had a message that he wanted to get across. Here are the three points he hammered home before he went off the record:
#1) For whatever reason, exit polls have over the years tended to favor Democrats over Republicans. It may be because the sample is too female, because they use big precincts for exit polls and we do better in small precincts, or because of something else. Just be aware that the exit polls will be wrong.
#2) Some of our toughest states will come in early. Keep that in mind and try not to declare the House lost too early because of that because it could depress turnout in the states that come in later.
#3) The polls are way oversampling democrats. Some of these polls are going +5 to +12 Democratic over the last cycle. But, in the last 25 years, the electorate has NEVER been that Democratic. So, in other words, a lot of the polls are wrong because they’re oversampling the number of Democratic voters.
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