by John Hawkins | December 13, 2007 6:40 am
I’ve been saying, over and over again, for a long time that, yes, Hillary Clinton is the candidate most likely to win, but she isn’t invincible in either the Democratic primaries or in the general election.
So, let’s take a look at the first two primary states for the Democrats.
Iowa is practically a toss-up between Hillary and Obama with Edwards just behind but within striking distance.
Soon after is New Hampshire which is once again, basically a toss-up between Obama and Clinton, with Edwards a little farther back.
This is a perilous situation for Hillary because…
#1) People have been buying into the idea of “herself” as an “invincible” candidate. So, if Obama beats her in Iowa, he’ll shatter the myth. At that point, you could see some of Hillary’s support quickly bleed away as Democrats realize that they really do have a genuine choice.
#2) Since Hill and Barack are so close in New Hampshire and since the two primaries are so close, if Obama wins Iowa, odds are that he will take New Hampshire, too. If Obama wins both of those states, then he may get so much momentum going that he’ll be able to steamroll Hillary.
#3) If John Edwards loses Iowa and/or Iowa/New Hampshire, given the difficulties he has had raising money, he may decide to go ahead and hang it up. That’s hard to predict, but if Edwards gets out, since he’s much more similar to Obama than Hillary, you have to figure that most of his support would go over to Obama.
#4) Obama has the money he needs to compete with Hillary and far more grassroots support. So, he has all the resources he needs to win the race.
Does this mean Obama is definitely going to come out on top? No. But, what it does mean is that this is now a real horse race that Obama is very capable of winning.
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