by John Hawkins | April 12, 2006 2:48 am
In Iraq, the terrorists appear to be pursuing the same strategy that worked so well for the mujahideen in Afghanistan during their war against the Soviets.
Their goal is not to defeat the Coalition forces militarily, it’s to convince the civilians back home that the war can’t be won. Once that happens and Coalition troops are withdrawn, there’ll be chaos, war, and bloodshed. Then, once again because of their superior will, the terrorists believe they can just hang in there until they can gain the strength to take over the country. At that point, the terrorists will be able to turn Iraq into the same sort of playground that Afghanistan was for them under the Taliban.
However, the US is using an entirely different strategy than the Soviets did in Afghanistan. The goal of the US is to build up the Iraqi troops to the point where they can police their own nation with minimal or no help from the US. Once the Iraqis get to that point, Coalition forces can go back home without leaving chaos in their wake and then the superior willpower of the terrorists will do them little good. It’s not possible for them to “wait out” the Iraqi troops because since they live there, they’ve got nowhere else to go. Moreover, kidnappings, assassinations, car bombings, and suicide bombings may make for splashy headlines, but that won’t win a war for you. For that, you need a real army than can take and hold territory, which is something the terrorists don’t have.
So, probably by mid-2007 or so, when the Iraqi police and military will comprise almost the entire front line security force in Iraq, it will be the terrorists, not the Coalition, trapped in an unwinnable war.
At that point, will the terrorists have a chance to take over the country? No. What happens if they give-up? They’ll be viewed as failures and lose face. Then what happens if they keep fighting and killing Muslims? They’ll be viewed as butchers and lose face.
It’ll be a no-win situation for the terrorists in Iraq and it’s growing closer by the day.
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