by John Hawkins | June 21, 2005 7:19 pm
Mainly because of name recognition, John McCain, like Joe Lieberman in 2000, tends to do pretty well when polls are taken on who’s going to be the Republican nominee in 2008. Furthermore, since McCain is the favorite Republican of the mainstream, they love to come up with little scenarios that allow him to become the nominee. The latest one is that McCain will team up with Jeb as his veep, W. will give them his blessing, and it’ll be smooth sailing from that point on .
Now, while I’ll be the first person to admit that it’s wide open in 2008 and that it’s impossible to know who the nominee is going to be at this point, I can tell you definitively that it ain’t gonna be “Maverick” John McCain.
Let me just give you 3 pieces of evidence to support my conclusion.
#1) Back in January, I polled the right side of the blogosphere on who their most and least desired nominee would be in 2008.
The least desired nominee? John McCain tied for first with Newt Gingrich. But, at least McCain did really well in the most desired nominee slot, right? Wrong, he finished 8th, behind dark horse candidates like Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, & Tom Tancredo. Considering that McCain is a well known national figure with high name recognition, that’s an abysmal showing.
#2) But, you may be thinking, “Gosh, that was probably a fluke. McCain isn’t THAT unpopular, is he?” Oh yeah, he is. In the “Who Is Screwing Up America” poll that went live today, McCain tied with Robert Byrd for 13th place and he was sandwiched in between Noam Chomsky in 15th place and Jessie Jackson in 11th. When the sort of people who will not just be voting in the Republican primaries, but influencing others who vote, dislike you that much, how can you possibly stand a chance?
#3) Last but not least, this story out of Arizona gives you an idea of just how angry John McCain makes the conservative base:
“On Saturday, the Arizona Republican Assembly (ARA) voted unanimously during its annual state convention to censure Arizona’s senior senator.
McCain has seriously alienated his conservative base in the 21 st century. However, he has greatly enamored himself with liberals and he easily won re-election in November with his new liberal support base. The conservatives who make up the ARA membership have had enough of what they consider a betrayal by McCain and they took advantage of their annual resolution ritual to take action against the liberal metamorphosis of the presidential hopeful.
The censure measure will be sent to Matt Salmon, chairman of the Arizona GOP — with hopes of a state party censure as well — to all Republican county and legislative district chairmen and will be issued as a press release to the media. No one spoke in support of McCain during discussion of the resolution.
…Though a motion for censure Saturday drew unanimous approval, the ARA’s senior member, Louis Stradling, of Mesa, offered up an amendment that would have added stronger language to the document. Stradling suggested an amendment to the resolution that would have charged McCain with “malfeasance.” That move failed when Barton said he agrees with the spirit of Stradling’s suggestion, but he felt the word “malfeasance” might have added a legal sticking point that ARA would be better off avoiding. After the proposed amendment failed, ARA delegates enthusiastically and without dissent approved the resolution to censure McCain.”
And John McCain is going to be the nominee in 2008? Not. A. Chance. In. Hell.
McCain may have bought the love of the New York Times, The WAPO, and the rest of the MSM by flipping off conservatives and it has served him well in Arizona. But come 2008, McCain is going to have to come to those same conservatives with his hat in his hand asking for their vote and every time he stuck it to the base is going to get thrown right back in his face.
Yes, the New York Times’ favorite Republican has bitten the hands that fed him far too many times and in 2008, if McCain runs, conservatives will bite him back at the ballot box.
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