Q&A Friday #81: Why Did Giuliani Tank?

by John Hawkins | December 28, 2007 6:45 am

Question: “Based on polls (if you believe them) has the angst created by the ‘Rudy Paradox’ finally caught up with ‘leaning towards Rudy’ Conservatives, finally making them say ‘screw Rudy’ and vote for someone else?

As you know, but others might not, that have been noted and preaching-as-practiced Conservatives (Sean Hannity a glaring example) banking on Rudy despite the fact that much of Rudy’s record doesn’t reflect Conservatism. In other words as much as Rudy didn’t come off as a Conservative to even them they were going to vote for Rudy anyways because they just want to win. Hence, I dubbed it the Rudy Paradox.” — Corperate_Cabana

Answer: In a 5 way race, it’s impossible to count Rudy out as of yet, but admittedly he looks to be in trouble. Although he does seem to still be leading in Florida by a small margin, he doesn’t seem to be placing any higher than 3rd place in any of the 5 states that votes before Florida. If it actually plays out that way, it’s hard to see Rudy winning Florida and being a big player in the race on Super Tuesday.

As to why Rudy has tumbled, personally I think that the same thing that happened to Howard Dean, happened to Rudy.

Many people think that the “Dean scream” was responsible for the end of his campaign, but forget that he had already lost Iowa by the time that happened.

The truth, which is a bit murkier, is that although Dean made a lot of small mistakes in the run-up to Iowa, he never made a big campaign killing error.

So what happened?

I think that when Democratic voters got to decision time, they probably liked Dean better than the other guys, but in the end, they just couldn’t see pulling the trigger and running him against the GOP. In the end, they decided he was just too radical and gaffe-prone to run.

In our case, I think a lot of Republicans looked at Rudy and finally in December, when it was getting close to decision time for them, they concluded that they couldn’t vote for a pro-abortion, pro-amnesty, adulterous, flamingly moderate nominee for President.

In other words, I think it’s exactly what many people predicted would happen to Rudy all along, but it didn’t happen until December, when the voters finally got down to business.

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