The GOP Is Going To Need At Least One More Election Cycle To Get Back On Track

by John Hawkins | September 26, 2007 2:47 pm

Yesterday, I touched on the fact that the Big 3 Republican contenders for the Presidency are all currently behind Hillary by at least 6 points in New Mexico[1], Virginia[2], & Iowa[3] — all of which are states that the GOP won in 2004.

These Gallup Poll numbers[4] are even more disturbing,

According to Gallup’s annual Governance survey, conducted Sept. 14-16, 2007, the Democratic Party enjoys a 15-point lead over the Republicans in overall favorability, 53% vs. 38%.

The Dems have +10% favorability numbers while the GOP is at -21%.

Just to give you an idea of how lousy the numbers are, in Mid-September of 2004, not long before George Bush squeeked out a victory over John Kerry, the GOP
was at roughly 53% favorability while the Dems were at about 50%.

So, the Dems have stayed in about the same place while the GOP has plummeted. Why? There are a number of reasons including:

1) George Bush is wildly unpopular.

2) The American people are tired of the war in Iraq.

3) The GOP base is extremely dispirited.

4) Liberals have been out of power for a long time and the American people have forgotten what a disaster they are when they’re in charge (although Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Company are working hard to remind them).

5) Although the House got an attitude adjustment in the 2006 elections, the Republicans in the Senate are still arrogant, have mediocre leadership, and were foolish enough to spend months fighting their biggest supporters over illegal immigration.

6) Ethics scandals and spending are still a problem. Think David Vitter, Ted Stevens, Larry Craig, and Don Young. Republicans are supposed to be the party of small, clean government — and they’re not working hard enough to deliver either at the moment.

Will this situation improve significantly by election time in 2008? I expect that it will, but probably not enough to allow the GOP to go on the offensive in 2008. At best, we can hope to hold the presidency, only lose or gain a handful of seats in the House, and only lose a seat or two in the Senate.

  1. New Mexico:
  2. Virginia:
  3. Iowa:
  4. Gallup Poll numbers:

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