by John Hawkins | January 8, 2008 9:35 am
SurveyUSA has out a new batch of head to head polls vs. Obama. First of all, here’s the data.
Obama (55%) vs. McCain (38%)
Obama (58%) vs. Huckabee (35%)
Obama (66%) vs. Giuliani (26%)
Obama (59%) vs. Romney (33%)
Obama (43%) vs. McCain (50)
Obama (46%) vs. Huckabee (46%)
Obama (49%) vs. Giuliani (41%)
Obama (51%) vs. Romney (39%)
Obama (35%) vs. McCain (54%)
Obama (35%) vs. Huckabee (54%)
Obama (41%) vs. Giuliani (47%)
Obama (44%) vs. Romney (43%)
Analysis: #1) They should have included Fred Thompson in this polling.
#2) The fact Obama is beating everyone in Iowa by a big margin is disturbing, because that should be a swing state.
#3) The Kentucky numbers show you how unelectable Romney would be in a general election. I mean he’s losing a solid Republican state to Obama that Huckabee and McCain win by almost 20 points.
Long story short: McCain would probably beat Obama. I’d give him a 75% chance of pulling it off.
It would probably be a 50/50 or 60/40 race with Huckabee and Obama. As I told someone last night on IM, Mike Huckabee could kick you in the groin and then talk you into thinking he did you a favor. Never underestimate that kind of charisma.
Giuliani is harder to call because he had much better numbers when he was riding high, earlier this year. Have people gotten tired of his shtick? Have they realized how sleazy he is? Have his numbers just dipped because he’s not the front runner anymore? It’s hard to say, but I tend to think he’d be a significantly weaker candidate than Huckabee and significantly stronger than Romney.
Mitt Romney has the same problem that he has always had: he runs a tight campaign, but he’s a terrible general election candidate. I tend to think he’d have a better shot against Barack than Hillary, but he would be an incredible longshot to win in either case. That’s what I’ve been saying about him all along and the numbers still indicate that it’s still the case.
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