What To Expect In This Week-End’s Primaries

by John Hawkins | January 18, 2008 7:24 am

On Saturday, Republicans will have their primaries in South Carolina and Nevada and the Democrats will have a primary in Nevada.

In South Carolina, McCain and Huckabee appear to be fighting it out for the top slot while Mitt and Fred are battling for third a few points back.

Both Huckabee and Fred really need a win. Fred probably needs a victory, or at least a 2nd place finish, to keep his campaign going and Huck needs a win to give him enough of a bounce going into Florida and Super Tuesday to have a decent chance to grab the brass ring.

McCain and Romney’s campaigns are a bit more resilient and they can afford losses, but a victory for McCain in conservative South Carolina would be a big deal.

In Nevada, McCain and Romney as duking it out for the top slot, while Huck, Rudy, and Fred are battling for a distant third. Romney appears to have the edge, but there hasn’t been enough polling to say for sure.

Nevada won’t get as much attention as South Carolina, but it will still be a momentum builder going into Florida and Romney probably needs that win to have a chance to stay competitive with McCain.

On the Democratic side, Hillary looks to be a bit ahead in Nevada, but a hamhanded attempt to suppress the vote[1] by her supporters seems to backfiring and may give Obama a chance to capture the state. A 2nd win in a row (Michigan doesn’t count) might just allow Hillary to get into the hunt in South Carolina. On the other hand, if Obama wins Nevada that should cement in a victory for him in South Carolina, too. So, this is a big primary and unfortunately, there’s not quite enough polling to get a good idea of who’s going to pull it off.

  1. hamhanded attempt to suppress the vote: http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/judge_allows_ca.html

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