Why I’m Not As Pessimistic About 2008 As A Lot Of People

by John Hawkins | September 17, 2007 10:23 am

Although it’s far too early to say for sure, I tend to think that the GOP will probably lose a few Senate seats in 2008, gain a few House seats, and I think the presidential race will probably be a toss-up or lean towards the Dems by a slight margin, maybe 60-40.

Granted, that’s not exactly a rosy forecast, but it’s a lot more optimistic than that of most political junkies.

Why is that? Well, poll numbers like these[1] make me think that the environment is going to be much more even-steven in 2008 than it was in 2006,

The Republican “brand” is in the dumpster, lately.

But note these poll numbers stuck on the middle of page A6 of today’s Wall Street Journal: “With approval of Congress stuck at 23 percent, Democrats see their ratings slip. Some 34 percent rate the party favorably, down from 42 percent in July, while negative ratings rise to 38 percent from 35 percent. Their consolation: Republicans, at 31 percent positive and 47 percent negative, fare worse.”

Yes, the GOP is “in the dumpster,” but not only are the Democrats heading towards the same place, they’re falling much faster than the GOP. Moreover, from what I am seeing, that’s a condition that is going to get worse before it gets better — if it does get better in time for the 2008 elections.

In 2006, being a Democrat was probably worth 5-8 points in most elections. Now, it’s probably worth 3 or 4 points. By the time the election rolls around in 2008, the way things are going, it may not be worth anything or it could even cost Dem candidates points.

Now, the war and President Bush are keeping the GOP from really taking advantage of the Dems’ woes and rapidly turning things around, but that shouldn’t be a problem for us in 2010. Hopefully, this will be the last down election that the GOP has for a while, and if we get lucky, we might be able to capture the Presidency and add House seats in an off year for the Party. That’s not too shabby.