by John Hawkins | August 13, 2002 4:23 pm
Why Is Iraq Our Top Priority: Some people are puzzled about why the Bush team is focused like a laser beam on Iraq. Does GWB want to finish the job his dad started back in the Gulf War? Is it because of oil? Is it just some sort of American vengeance thing against Saddam?
Well once you understand the Bush admin’s goal, the order of nations that may come under fire becomes obvious. GWB has concluded (quite correctly I might add), that it’s vitally important that the State support of terrorism be ended. The funding, training, equipment, and aid given by terrorist supporting nations allows terrorist groups to be much, much, more effective. For example, without the help and protection of the government of Afghanistan, Bin Laden could have never pulled off the 9/11 attacks. It would have been too difficult for him to recruit new members without a protected base of operations and chances are that he would of been long since dead without Taliban protection anyway.
So the Bush administration is looking to end the State support of terrorism. With some nations like Libya, Pakistan, Sudan, Yemen, etc, a combination of economic aid and pure intimidation can do the trick. However, that combo hasn’t worked on Iraq, Iran, Syria, (and their puppet state Lebanon), the ‘Disputed Territories’, North Korea (more of a WMD problem than a terrorism problem) and on the more covert support of terrorism by Saudi Arabia. Since it would be inviting more 9/11’s to allow these nations to continue on the way they’re going, military action is required. So who do you hit first?
Iraq is the obvious choice for a number of reasons. First off, they’re the easiest nation to get support (and more importantly bases) for hitting because they’re obviously pursuing WMD (Saddam is foregoing tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue for nothing.) Furthermore, Iraq’s neighbors may talk unity, but in private they fear and hate Saddam with a passion. Whereas we could count on getting zero Arab or European support for hitting Saudi Arabia or Iran, we will get enough cooperation from nations like Turkey, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar to take out Saddam.
Once Saddam is gone, the equation changes significantly. We’ll have a new source of oil that will insure that we can start bossing around Saudi Arabia without having to worry about any sort of disruption of our supply. Furthermore, the show of American military might, the removal of a belligerent Hussein, & the freedom we’ll have to take all of our troops out of Saudi Arabia without a threat to our oil supply will give us new leverage in the Middle East. Most importantly, we’ll no longer have to worry about getting a base to launch our troops from. Once we have Iraq, we can literally hit every other nation we’d possibly need to except for North Korea. That is absolutely crucial because I expect support for the military portion of the ‘War on Terrorism’ to almost completely dry up after Iraq.
After Iraq, we insure that regime change happens in Iran. They’re the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism and they’re not likely to change their stripes. Fortunately, their populace is ready to revolt and their whole nation is teetering on the edge. Therefore, I doubt that we’ll have to do a full scale invasion to facilitate a change in government. A little help to the resistance groups fighting the government, a few supplies, some rabble rousing, a bit of special forces help and training, and a guarantee of US military support in the event of a revolution, and I think the Iranian people will be able do our work for us.
At that point, I expect Syria and Lebanon to just roll over rather than take us on militarily, Saudi Arabia is so reliant on our oil dollars that they’ll almost have to comply once we have full access to Iraqi oil, and the Israelis can handle the Palestinians. Then our military’s work will largely be done in the Middle East and we’ll only have North Korea to deal with. Although they’re making a few friendly overtures towards us now, there is no guarantee as to what they’ll do long-term. However, since China will be putting them under tremendous pressure to avoid the “Korean War part 2” and because there will be a lot of economic advantages to cooperating with us, I think we can probably avoid war with N. Korea while still accomplishing our objectives.
That’s why Bush is talking up hitting Iraq so much and why they’re next. Just don’t be surprised when he starts talking about Iran every day shortly after we get Iraq under control…
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