by John Hawkins | March 7, 2006 10:43 am
Howard Fineman over at MSNBC has a piece on Rudy Giuliani’s upcoming run for the presidency in 2008. Here’s a little taste:
“(T)hose who say (Giuliani will) fold may not know the man, his history—or what he is really up to. Decades of jousting with the New York press have left him with a hide of titanium. Without much national notice, he’s worked the rubber-chicken circuit, making 140 appearances in the last two years. He’s been smoking cigars with Ahnold in California, and is slated to do fund-raisers for him, as well as the big GOP Senate dinner in Washington this spring. A few weeks ago in Florida, he did the drop-by of all drop-bys as the “surprise guest” at the annual convention of the Global Pastors Network. He wowed them with his energy and his revival-style witness to his faith in Jesus. Ralph Reed, a godfather of religious conservatives, thinks Giuliani’s charisma may help him overcome his social-issues liberalism in the Bible belt. “He can take control of a room better than any politician I’ve seen,” said Reed. The key moment with the pastors was in the private holding room, where he spent quality time among their leaders. Giuliani told them that the keyto his final decision on whether to run would be whether he thought he could raise enough cash. But he didn’t sound as if he had much doubt—and nothing going on in Memphis this week is likely to change his mind.”
Giuliani could go toe to toe with Hillary or run for governor of New York — but no, he’s going to waste his time by running for President even though, like McCain, he’ll be shredded in the primaries.
All this, “his charisma will win over social conservatives,” stuff is a complete fantasy. Yes, Rudi has loads of charisma, name recognition, and a lot of conservatives do genuinely like him. Heck, I genuinely like him.
But, you gotta understand two things:
#1) Plainly speaking, a lot of conservatives simply don’t feel that George Bush is far enough to the right. They feel, with a lot of justification, that after having a man as conservative as Reagan in office and after all the victories Republicans have had at the ballot box, that they deserve a VERY conservative candidate for President — and George Bush just isn’t it. For this reason, a lot of conservatives will be looking for a candidate whom they perceive to be to Georges Bush’s right during the 2008 primaries.
#2) The people voting in these primaries tend to be much more conservative than the general population.
That’s why, despite all his charisma, Giuliani has no chance whatsoever. He’s just on the wrong side of too many hot button issues that the sort of people who vote in the primaries really care about. For example he’s pro-gun control, he’s pro-abortion, and he’s for gay marriage. As if that weren’t enough, a lot of these voters, who detested Bill Clinton for his lack of morals, are just not going to turn right around and line up to support a guy for the Presidency who cheated on his wife.
At this point, it doesn’t matter how much money he raises, who endorses him, or how he changes his positions around, Rudi’s starting in a hole so deep that he’ll never get out of it. It may be impossible to say who the GOP’s candidate will be in 2008, but it definitely won’t be Giuliani.
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