Anonymous Senate Aide X: Obamacare Going To January. Less Than 50% Chance Of Passage.

Despite the Democratic attempts to paint the health care bill as an inevitability, the signs of life for the bill are looking ever more faint.

The bill is extremely unpopular and the poll numbers seem to be getting worse for it by the week. Moreover, Harry Reid is having an extremely difficult time getting to 60 votes and his attempt to replace the public option by expanding Medicare seemed like a desperation move. Yet and still, Lieberman and Nelson shot the idea down almost as soon as it was proposed, leaving Reid with no easy option to get a bill passed and a Christmas break coming up where Democratic senators are sure to get an earful from angry constituents who oppose the bill.

So with that in mind, I decided to turn to some of my sources in the Senate to see what they had to say. What follows is an edited transcript of a conversation I had with Senate Aide X, one of my most trusted sources. What you're about to read is probably representative of the behind-the-scenes thinking of Republicans in the Senate and of course, this is being posted with that person's permission:

John: Hey, if this latest Medicare/healthcare bill goes down in flames, will Reid go for reconciliation? Also, I assume if this fails, we're into January, right?

Senate Aide X: Yes, January and I doubt if they'll go for reconciliation.

John: Why do you doubt reconciliation? I ask because I am thinking it won't get 60.

Senate Aide X: I just haven't heard any talk of it.

John: Do you think it will get 60? I am thinking, no.

Senate Aide X: I don't doubt the Dems may do anything to pass it, so I'm not ready to declare it dead.

John: But still, it's looking grim right?

Senate Aide X: They are in much worse shape now than a week ago. If the bill dies this week, it will be because Dems just let it crumble through infighting and the Tea Party/American people standing up in August and demanding through weeks of recent phone calls and protests that it be stopped.

John: If it were to pass somehow, do you think it could die going through ping pong, back and forth between the House?

Senate Aide X: No! Pelosi will rubber stamp whatever the Senate passes.

John: So, you think all these demands from the Left about the public option and the Blue Dogs saying they have to have the Stupak Amendment in there are all for show?

Senate Aide X: No, the left-roots passion is real, but if you are Obama, Reid, and Pelosi, you know this is a one shot deal. This moment won't happen again soon and it's better to cut any deal you can to socialize health care as much as you can now. Take the win, go for more later.

John: One last thing: Chances of passing a health care bill? Give me a percentage.

Senate Aide X: Less than 50% now

John: Thanks for your time. Have a good night.

Long story short, folks, the fight isn't over by a longshot. Reid is still working to get something passed that Pelosi can slam through the House. Moreover, if that doesn't work, Reid may still try reconciliation. But, the odds are slowly but surely turning in our favor. Keep up the good work and we may be able to stop the Democrats from slashing Medicare, raising premiums, raising taxes, funding abortion with our tax dollars, rationing care, and ruining the quality of our health care system.

wylie_e_coyote

Here is a good article about the core elements of the takeover – much more then simply medicare/medicade expansion and a new government insurance entitlement:

http://healthcare.nationalrevi...NzhhYTVjY2QwNT...

“What is fascinating (to me anyway) is that the Left could have had health-care socialism passed on a bipartisan basis months ago, if only they had suppressed their hubris. Republicans were (and remain) perfectly willing to approve community-rating and guaranteed-access regulations for private insurers; and if those were implemented, no one would need a government option or any of the other nostrums: Coverage would be transformed into a public-utility-type service, the insurers would remain “private” in only the most superficial of senses, and the government control and wealth transfers that represent the Holy Grails of the Left would be achieved.

But . . . no. Nancy and Harry and the others simply couldn’t stomach a few compromises that would have proven meaningless in the larger context of massive adverse selection and government takeover. They had 60 votes, and they just could not resist the temptation to shove it all down our throats. Now they may get nothing except collapsing prospects for the 2010 elections. Life is wonderful.”

I think the author and many others are far to premature in celebrating CrappyCare’s demise!

Yes, I think there is much drama going on – right now its to fuel the KOSer left into think that the D leadership did “all the can” before all variations of the government option is dropped!

Look for a “dramatic leadership” by Obama telling the libs to take “half-a-loaf” to “help” the american people ie individual mandates only – then a quick ping pong!

I dont trust the ultra libs at all when they say “Government Option or Nothing”

Nor do I trust Nelson, Liberman not to drop opposition once the government option charade is played out…

Lieberman is serving as the token "villian" to channel the lefts hate so he is the pretext for dropping the government option - ie the claim of NO CHOICE!

I hope I am wrong but its lining up all too strangely right now to what I predicted – at least its worth a “shout out” fax or email tonight to all these Senators to keep the heat on – tell them NO INDIVIDUAL MANDATE!
Tennwriter

CoolCzech,
It happened with President Clinton. Triangulation, they called it.

Moderate, reasonably comptetent Democrat Party will beat RINOs badly. This is one reason we need to press on for Across the Board Conservatism to avoid the risk of being triangulated out of power in 2012.
CoolCzech

"The inept GOP and conservatives couldnt start their car, you seem to forget the debacle that was 2000-06, what exactly has changed?"

You wanna know what's changed?

What's changed is, Democrats - Obama included - ran on being mainstream "moderates" that claimed to be less corrupt than Republicans.

Since then, they've tipped their hand as stand revealed as Mao-quoting socialists eager to take over entire industries, nationalize healthcare, bow down to foreign rulers, and force their envirowhacko ways down the throats of a (Democratic controlled!) Congress.

They've also been revealed to be no purer than Republicans when it comes to corruption (Hello, Charlie Rangel!)

THAT'S what's changed. You Leftists have scared the hell out of the American people, and a cataclymic electroal tidal wave will be coming at ya shortly.

(Ironically, though, the defeats of Obamacare & Cap and Trade, if they happen - and I think they will - might be the best thing to happen to Obama. He's actually showing nads on Afghanistan, and people might actually start to like him again as long as his hands are kept away from their doctor and their thermostats. Hell, it might even get him re-elcted, alas).
CoolCzech

Posted by whats_up
2009-12-14 10:47:34

My only response, whats_up, is: How's All That Hope & Change Working out for you, Big Guy?

BWAHAHahhahahhahaha!!!!!!
MediumHeadBoy

Don't forget the Dow is much lower too.
belacuse

"In 2006 the unemployment rate was 4.75%, the national debt was a mere $8.4 billion, and GM was a privately operated company."

Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark. Whats_up may need an extra large serving of kool-aid to get over that one.
Corperate_Cabana

Given that the past cannot be changed, I look at the now, and right now the American people that voted for Obama DO NOT WANT HIS HEALTH CARE!

In any form.

Period.

And I agree with RWNReader2: I'm not happy with near 50 percent chance. I want it as close to zero as possible: the best way to achieve that is to keep this debate going THROUGH the primaries.
RWNReader2

Less than 50% now
The idea that this thing is anywhere close to 50% is a depressing thought to me. I always thought that, while we had political differences, most Democrats shared our basic beliefs in American exceptionalism and constitutionally limited government (i.e. freedom). It's been a depressing exercise to see unabashed socialism come so close to taking over.
Mike_M

"you seem to forget the debacle that was 2000-06, what exactly has changed?"

In 2006 the unemployment rate was 4.75%, the national debt was a mere $8.4 billion, and GM was a privately operated company.

Yeah that sure sucked, didn't it.
Dick_Nixon

Posted by whats_up
2009-12-14 10:47:34

You got Nixon's proof yet that David Duke voted for Bush in 2004? March will make 3 years since you stated that fact.
mightysamurai

The inept GOP and conservatives couldnt start their car

Really? Because we seem to have totally derailed Obama's agenda so far.

Where's all that "change" your Messiah was supposed to bring, Whats_up? It's already been a year and so far Obama hasn't done anything but drive up the deficit and deepen the recession. Oh, and complain about President Bush.
whats_up

Oh, and whatsup: WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED!!!!

Posted by CoolCzech
2009-12-14 09:29:14

Oh, your just getting started, oohh we are trembling. The inept GOP and conservatives couldnt start their car, you seem to forget the debacle that was 2000-06, what exactly has changed? You still have the same people in office, doing the same thing. I wouldnt count your chickens before they hatch CC, after all werent those PUMA's supposed to come through for you as well?
CoolCzech

Sorry for all the typos: Obama's implosion has been giddy as a school girl. Hee, hee, ha, ha!!!

But you know what I'm REALLY looking for? The protracted political AGONY that will be the 3 or 4 year long legal ordeal of KSM's Political Show Trial in New York City!!!!!!

Good GRIEF, Liberals, why don't you do yourselve's a favor and committ Hari Kari NOW on your own: at least you'll check out a modicum of dignity before its all over!
CoolCzech

Obama's sovietcare plans are turning into a Manmade Disaster of Hindenburg proportions, and God, don't it feel GOOD!

First THIS epic disaster, then the FAR more "explosive" Cap & Trade Disaster to Come, Bwahahahaha!!!!!

Good Grief, the Looney Leftists can't get their own way even with 60 seats in the Senate and ownership of the WH and the House, LOL! What a bunch of pathetic sops, God Bless Them!

And did anyone else notice the wat Obama seemed to morph into George W. Bush during his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech? CLASSIC!!!

God news for ya: if Sovietcare can't pass THIS year, it's deader than Anna Nicole Smith ANY year.

Oh, and whatsup: WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED!!!!
Mike_M

We can only hope. With as long as this debate has dragged on, we're already rapidly approaching primary season where incumbents are going to be bashed over the head with this bill nonstop by opponents. It needs to either be passed or killed soon, and with the very public defection of Lieberman, it seems increasingly unlikely that it will easily pass.

Now would be a great time for the GOP to ride to the rescue with a compromise bill...allow national insurance competition, make individual plans tax deductible and portable, and emphasize Medicare won't be cut by $400 billion. The Dems will lose the 20% of the country on Medicare and the 85% of people happy with their insurance coverage. Let them take the credit and the Blue Dogs will bail instantly.