Iran Deal: The October Surprise?

Will President Obama announce a deal with Iran for a moratorium on the enrichment of uranium, in return for the dismantling of some international sanctions against the regime? And will the announcement be timed to appear just before the election? Reza Kahlili (the pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards), the author […]

 




Romney Needs to Expand the Map

Originally, the Mitt Romney and Barack Obama campaigns chose which swing states to focus on by comparing election results from previous years and figuring out which were most or least likely to vote for each candidate. The result was a consensus that North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado were the most […]

 

Romney, Obama and Biden: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Vice president Joe Biden showed last night that he is not qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. There was no dignity, circumspection, courtesy, civility or presidentiality in his performance in the debate with the GOP contender, Congressman Paul Ryan Biden came across as a windbag and a demagogue with his constant interruptions […]

 

The UN Tries to Become a Global Government

The United Nations was founded to provide a forum for the world’s nations to negotiate differences and avoid armed conflict. Its administrative role was restricted to policing peace agreements after they were concluded and providing humanitarian assistance. But now, the U.N. is trying to become the world’s government, superseding national sovereignty and making of the […]

 


Romney Outspending Obama on TV in Swing States

Mitt Romney turned the tables on the president this week and is now spending more on television advertising in the swing states. Buoyed by a 64 percent increase in his television spending (vs. only 2 percent for Obama) Romney is spending $22.4 million on ads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada compared to […]

 


Foreign Money Scandal Threatens Obama

In September, President Obama’s campaign received 1.8 million donations from small contributors who did not break the $200 threshold requiring that their information be reported to the Federal Elections Commission. They gave the campaign 98 percent of the $181 million it raised that month, a figure vastly higher than its take in any previous month. […]

 

How the Media is Trying to Spin the Debate

Did Mitt Romney win the debate or did President Obama lose it? To those who watched, the answer is obvious: both. But in the media we hear endless explanations of why Obama lost and few comments on how effective and articulate Mitt Romney was. Bob Woodward hypothesizes that Obama was, somehow, distracted — perhaps by […]

 

Bipartisanship: A New Winning Issue

I was surprised when Frank Luntz’ focus group showed that the best line of the evening’s debate was Governor Romney’s rendition of working with Democrats in Massachusetts and will continue to do so as president. However, it makes a great deal of sense that this line would resonate. While we professionals are trying to win […]

 


Romney’s Real Debate Victories

Obviously, Mitt Romney won last night’s debate. His passion, charisma, energy, eye contact, personality, force of argument and earnest compassion contrasted with a washed out, tired, hesitant President Obama. But seeing the debate from a professional’s eye, Romney scored a number of key victories in the turf wars that underlie this campaign. These victories are […]

 


Romney Pulls Ahead

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women and white men. Tell me your demographic, and I’ll […]

 

Marriage Gap Dominates the Election

There is no gender gap. There is a marriage gap. A September 13 poll I conducted (912 likely voters, national sample) found that while married white women back Romney by 55-40 percent, Unmarried white women back Obama by 60-32 percent! Since unmarried white women are 45 percent of all white women, this marriage gap poses […]

 

The Democratic Convention Bounce … And What To Do About It

Romney’s behalf in this election is a four-year-long shift of voters who no longer consider themselves Democrats and are now either Independents or Republicans. Since 2008 about 6 percent of Democrats have left the Party, and the GOP has gained about three points (the rest becoming Independents). In the aftermath of their Convention, however, the […]

 


The Teachers Union Commits Suicide

The teachers union will never recover from this strike in Chicago. If their demonstrations against Scott Walker were self-destructive, then the strike now unfolding is pure assisted suicide. Of course, voters like the teachers union when they advocate for better schools but hate them when they strike. And, of course, voters empathize with teachers when […]

 


Obama Thugs Rough Up Gallup for Polls They Don’t Like

The Obama Administration’s Justice Department announced on August 22 that it was joining a lawsuit by a former Gallup employee and whistleblower against the Gallup Corporation for allegedly overcharging the government on polling work. The announcement comes on the heels of a confrontation between Gallup staffers and Obama strategist David Axelrod in which he accused […]

 


Romney’s Lead Over Economy Solidifies

(These poll numbers are from a survey of 500 likely voters that I conducted on Thursday, Aug. 23.) Voters have hardened their views about the economy and now decisively reject Obama’s economic record and say they see no reason for it to get better in a second term. Instead, they conclude that the president doesn’t […]

 


Romney Will Lead After Both Conventions

Each party convention usually produces a bounce in the polls of 6-10 points, though they often cancel each other out. But this year, there will be a difference. The Republicans will gain much more from their convention than the Democrats will from theirs. This year, there will be no offsetting bounces; the advantage will be […]

 



Danger Signals Over VP Pick

Talk in Republican circles lately has focused on the possibility that Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s relationship with his fellow Floridian Congressman David Rivera could spell trouble for his nomination. Rivera, a solid conservative who was also elected in 2010, is an old friend of Rubio’s, and the two bought a house together that went into […]