Why We Have — and Probably Will Keep Having — Sluggish Job Growth

Why has the American economy had such sluggish job creation and economic growth? That’s a pretty fundamental question, and one for which most conventional economists have had unsatisfying answers. Clues can be found, I think, in the new book by the unconventional economist and blogger Arnold Kling. “Specialization and Trade: A Re-Introduction to Economics” is, […]

 



Bernie Sanders Wins, Even While Losing

Bernie Sanders is not going gently into that good night, at least not yet. After hearing Monday from the Associated Press that Hillary Clinton had clinched the nomination, after absorbing Tuesday night a solid defeat in the California primary and losses in three other states, Sanders was still pledging to go on campaigning for the […]

 




Cities Should Have Room for Everyone

Nearly a century ago, in 1920, the Census Bureau caused a ruckus when it announced that, for the first time, a majority of Americans lived in cities — even though its definition of a city included every hamlet with a population of 2,500 and above. Today a majority of Americans live in what are by […]

 


‘Ferguson Effect’ Is Real, and It Threatens to Harm Black Americans Most

University of Missouri at St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld has had “second thoughts.” Like many academic criminologists, he had pooh-poohed charges that skyrocketing murder rates in many cities in 2015 and 2016 result from a “Ferguson effect” — a skittering back from proactive policing for fear of accusations of racism like those that followed the […]

 



Looking Back on the Two Cuban-American Also-Rans

John Quincy Adams, our greatest secretary of state (sorry, Hillary Clinton fans), thought that Cuba would inevitably become part of the United States. It hasn’t, at least not yet, but two Cuban-Americans were serious presidential contenders this year. Yes, neither Marco Rubio nor Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination, instead suspending their campaigns the nights […]

 

Can Trump Disrupt the General Election as He Did the Primaries?

So Republicans now have a presumptive nominee — one headed to a clear delegate majority without visible opposition — sooner than the Democrats. It’s another way in which this year’s presidential race has defied expectations and ignored precedent. Donald Trump will now have 10 months to stage-manage his Cleveland convention, while Hillary Clinton must spend […]

 

Republicans Should Have Adopted Democrats’ Rules — and Vice Versa

The unexpected successes, forecast by almost no one 12 months ago, of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in winning 40 percent and 42 percent in Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses is widely taken as evidence of raging discontent among American voters. There’s something to that. But Trump’s better-than-even chance of winning the Republican nomination […]

 


Ethnicity Still Matters in the Politics of 2016

Ethnicity still matters. That’s one lesson I draw from the results so far of this year’s Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses. We’re encouraged to believe ethnicity doesn’t matter much anymore; only race does. This is the implicit assumption behind the analyses that divide the electorate into four racial categories: whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians. […]

 


Donald Trump’s Insincere Process Arguments

“Gestapo tactics.” That’s how Donald Trump’s recently installed campaign manager, Paul Manafort, characterized the Ted Cruz campaign’s successful effort to win all 34 of Colorado’s pledged national convention delegates at the long-scheduled Republican congressional district and state conventions. “Today winning votes doesn’t mean anything,” Trump complained. “It’s a corrupt deal going on in this country […]

 

The Tragic Deterioration of Washington’s Great Society Subway

If you live any distance beyond the Capital Beltway you probably didn’t notice, but an important part of government in Washington shut down on Wednesday, March 16. That’s when the Metro subway system’s recently installed general manager, Paul Wiedefeld, ordered a one-day shutdown of the entire 117-mile system for emergency inspection of track-based power cables. […]

 

Wisconsin Republicans Bid No Trump

“Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again.” That’s the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post’s Robert Costa. It’s also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his […]

 

Are Trump Voters Really Victims?

What you hear when you listen to many fervent supporters of Donald Trump is that they are victims — victims of globalization and trade agreements that have sent their jobs to Mexico or China. Victims of competition from illegal immigrants from Mexico willing to work for starvation wages. Victims of a Republican establishment that promised […]

 


Does Social Connectedness Explain Trump’s Appeal?

How can one make sense of the electoral divisions in this year’s Republican primaries and caucuses? The contours of Donald Trump’s support and opposition don’t fall on traditional lines. There’s not a regional division, for example. Trump’s best states have been Massachusetts, Mississippi and Arizona. We’re not seeing the divide between evangelical Christians and others […]

 

A Vote for Kasich Is a Vote for Trump

Perhaps the most important results of the March 22 Republican primary in Arizona and caucus in Utah were numbers that didn’t appear on your television screen, no matter how late you stayed up for the poll closing times. Those were the numbers of votes cast for Marco Rubio in Arizona — 70,587 of them at […]

 

Only Ted Cruz Can Stop Donald Trump

Can Donald Trump be stopped from winning the Republican nomination? The answer is yes. Despite his big win over Marco Rubio in Florida and his narrow wins over Ted Cruz in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he has not won a majority of delegates yet awarded — 661 at this writing, with several more to […]

 

Will the Politics of Nostalgia Trump the Politics of the Future?

The likely presidential nominee of the Republican Party and the certain (barring indictments) nominee of the Democratic Party have something in common, something more than residences in New York: campaign appeals based on nostalgia. Consider Donald Trump’s official campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again.” His reference point is not the Founding Fathers, whom Marco Rubio […]