A Current, Very Rough, Electoral Vote Count Of The Top 3 GOP Contenders Vs. Hillary

28 Jan, 2008 by John Hawkins

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Last week, I did a breakdown of the numbers in some key states, using Survey USA polling data from this year, that showed how the three top GOP contenders did when matched up against Hillary Clinton in a general election. However, it occurred to me this week-end that it would be hard for people to put those numbers in context without breaking it down by electoral votes. So, I decided to do that.

Keep in mind that the numbers you are about to see come from one polling agency and that although they have polled a lot of the important states, they haven’t gotten to every key state. Moreover, it goes without saying that this just gives you an idea of what the numbers currently look like, not what the data would look like in November of this year.

With that in mind, judging by the trends, my guess is that John McCain’s current electoral numbers would be better than what you see below if they polled all the competitive states, Mike Huckabee’s numbers would be a little worse, and Mitt Romney’s numbers would be significantly worse (If Mitt is behind in Kentucky and Missouri, there are probably at least 2-3 other Southern states that Romney is losing as well).

What you are about to see is the number of electoral votes each candidate would capture, based on that SurveyUSA data, and the 2004 states that they would flip from 2004 (270 electoral votes are required to win):

John McCain: 324 electoral votes
McCain flips: Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
Hillary Clinton: 214 electoral votes
Hillary flips: None

Mike Huckabee: 248
Mike Huckabee flips: No states
Hillary Clinton: 290
Hillary Flips: Iowa (7), Kansas (6), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20)

Mitt Romney: 229
Mitt Romney flips: No states
Hillary Clinton: 309
Hillary Flips: Iowa (7), Kansas (6), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Kentucky (8), Missouri (11)

PS: The actual polling data is below.

McCain and Huckabee win, Romney loses

State: Kentucky
Date of poll: 01/07/08
2004 Results: Kerry (40%) vs. Bush (60%)

McCain (51%) vs. Clinton (41%)
Romney (42%) vs. Clinton (48%)
Huckabee (53%) vs. Clinton (41%)

State: Missouri
Date of poll: 01/14/08
2004 Results: Kerry (46%) vs. Bush (53%)

McCain (50%) vs. Clinton (44%)
Romney (42%) vs. Clinton (49%)
Huckabee (47%) vs. Clinton (45%)

McCain wins, Huckabee and Romney loses

State: Iowa
Date of poll: 1/07/08
2004 Results: Kerry (49%) vs. Bush (50%)

McCain (48%) vs. Clinton (44%)
Romney (44%) vs. Clinton (48%)
Huckabee (45%) vs. Clinton (47%)

State: Kansas
Date of poll: 1/18/08
2004 Results: Kerry (37%) vs. Bush (62%)

McCain (53%) vs. Clinton (40%)
Romney (44%) vs. Clinton (47%)
Huckabee (46%) vs. Clinton (47%)

State: Minnesota
Date of poll: 1/23/08
2004 Results: Kerry (51%) vs. Bush (48%)

McCain (49%) vs. Clinton (45%)
Romney (40%) vs. Clinton (51%)
Huckabee (42%) vs. Clinton (50%)

State: New Mexico
Date of poll: 1/23/08
2004 Results: Kerry (49%) vs. Bush (50%)

McCain (51%) vs. Clinton (42%)
Romney (45%) vs. Clinton (48%)
Huckabee (46%) vs. Clinton (47%)

State: Ohio
Date of poll: 1/07/08
2004 Results: Kerry (49%) vs. Bush (51%)

McCain (48%) vs. Clinton (46%)
Romney (41%) vs. Clinton (49%)
Huckabee (46%) vs. Clinton (47%)

State: Oregon
Date of poll: 1/14/08
2004 Results: Kerry (52%) vs. Bush (48%)

McCain (49%) vs. Clinton (45%)
Romney (38%) vs. Clinton (54%)
Huckabee (40%) vs. Clinton (54%)

State: Virginia
Date of poll: 1/18/08
2004 Results: Kerry (46%) vs. Bush (54%)

McCain (52%) vs. Clinton (43%)
Romney (43%) vs. Clinton (51%)
Huckabee (43%) vs. Clinton (50%)

State: Washington
Date of poll: 1/14/08
2004 Results: Kerry (53%) vs. Bush (46%)

McCain (49%) vs. Clinton (46%)
Romney (38%) vs. Clinton (54%)
Huckabee (40%) vs. Clinton (54%)

State: Wisconsin
Date of poll: 1/23/08
2004 Results: Kerry (50%) vs. Bush (49%)

McCain (49%) vs. Clinton (45%)
Romney (41%) vs. Clinton (50%)
Huckabee (44%) vs. Clinton (48%)

PS #2: People keep saying that Mike Huckabee is a limited candidate who only appeals to evangelicals and that he would have no chance in a general election. That could turn out to be true, especially in a tough year for Republicans. But, if it is, what does it say about Mitt Romney given that Mike Huckabee currently outpolls him head to head against Hillary Clinton in every competitive state?