A State Of The Presidential Race Analysis

15 Sep, 2008 by John Hawkins

Print this article Font size -16+

Nationally, John McCain has a small lead that’s probably about 2-4 points in real terms. Furthermore, if the election were held today, John McCain would probably win it.

Additionally, the enthusiasm, party identification, and money gaps between the parties have closed considerably. Obama is running a horrible campaign, Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to now be genuinely in play, and there’s a possibility that Obama’s numbers are artificially inflated in many states because of the Bradley Effect.

That’s a good place for McCain to be in with the debates coming up because, truthfully, even though Obama has been talked up as the greatest orator since Reagan, McCain is a better debater than Obama — which is likely to catch a lot of viewers who’ve heard about Obama’s charisma by surprise.

Today, McCain probably has a 60% chance of winning the election. If he’s doing as well as he is today — or better — after the debates, his chances will go up to 75%. Keep in mind — being the favorite doesn’t mean that McCain definitely wins; it just means he’s most likely to win.

So, how has Obama gotten into this situation in what should have been a gimmie election?

Well, first of all, since Iraq has improved so much that it has practically been taken off the table, there really hasn’t been a defining issue in the election.

So, this has really turned into more a battle of personalities. That’s not a battle Obama is well suited to fight against a man like John McCain, who has been lauded by the press (up until this year) as a moderate, maverick Republican — a “good” Republican, if you will.

That’s why most of Obama’s attacks on McCain, which have consisted of trying to shove him into the standard liberal template for Republicans (rich, elitist warmonger), have failed.

Obama, on the other hand, has run adrift because even though the country wants to put Obama in the White House to teach the GOP a lesson and because they’d love to have the first black President, he’s an extremely sketchy character. Consider,

* He’s not experienced enough to be President.

* He’s the most liberal man in the Senate, his veep is the 3rd most liberal, and yet he’s claiming to be a moderate who’ll pursue national unity.

* He claims to be a post-racial candidate, but he went to an anti-white church for 20 years and supporters constantly cry racism at the slightest provocation.

* Obama has run a dishonest, negative campaign and he has constantly changed his positions on the issues.

* He has pal’d around with terrorist Bill Ayers.

* He comes across as being more interested in Europe’s opinion than that of other Americans, especially ones that like their President to wear a flag pin or hold his hand over his heart during the national anthem.

* He comes across as toweringly arrogant, thin skinned, and naive — all at the same time.

* He has made more gaffes than Howard Dean, when he was a candidate for President.

Long story short, Obama is one of the most unqualified applicants for the presidency in American history and there is very little evidence that Obama is ready to handle the most important job on planet Earth.

Whatever the American people may think of John McCain, they can feel comfortable with him in the White House. This is a man, whatever his other flaws may be, who can handle the job. Putting Obama in the White House, on the other hand, represents an enormous risk. Sure, he might do fine — but, his presidency is just as likely to be a calamity for the country.

That’s the case conservatives have made to the public and so far, it seems to be working and the Obama campaign has had no answer to it except to get into a negative ad death match with the McCain campaign that they won’t win.

In the end, this election is a referendum on whether Barack Obama is ready to lead and he has yet to prove that he’s up to the challenge.