Breaking Down Which Republican Is Most Likely To Get The GOP Nomination

For this post, I’m going to set aside my personal preferences in the 2008 race and talk about which candidates are most likely to capture the nomination. Keep in mind that it is still early and the race is very fluid, so this analysis could and probably will change quite a bit over the next few months.

Fred Thompson (40%): He’s polling in 2nd place nationally right now, but he has more grass roots support amongst the activists and bloggers than any other candidate and he’s the only solid conservative in the top tier.

Rudy Giuliani (25%): He’s polling the top slot and has been for a while. He’s also very charismatic and has a big war chest saved up. However, he’s well to the left of most primary voters and has a lot of baggage. That makes me think he is going to have a lot of trouble closing the deal with the base before all is said and done.

Mitt Romney (15%): He has a lot charisma, is raising money like crazy, and has a solid strategy (Win Iowa and New Hampshire and hope that catapults him to the top of the heap). However, Romney, for whatever reason, seems to be having a lot of trouble getting traction nationally which suggests that he may not have what it takes to win the nomination.

John McCain (10%): McCain is actually polling ahead of Romney in national polls and his name recognition, military service, and his shift to the right on illegal immigration are serving him well. However, he’s having a lot of trouble raising money, the party activists detest him, and his “straight talk” campaign feels really tired and dated. It seems hard to imagine his capturing the nomination unless Giuliani & Thompson implode.

Mike Huckabee (5%): Huckabee has charisma to spare, credible status as a Washington outsider, and he’s the only 2nd tier candidate who seems to be getting any significant traction right now. However, his fund raising has been anemic and although he started to move up a bit in the polls, he’s a long, long way from being competitive with Thompson or Giuliani.

The Rest Of The Field (5%): It’s not out of the question that another candidate from the 2nd tier could get in the game, but the later we get into the election cycle, the less likely it is to happen.

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