Final Race By Race Estimates For The House

It’s much more difficult to project winners and losers in the House than the Senate because polling data is scarce in a lot of the races. So, since that’s the case, these estimates are much more dodgy than the Senate estimates. Still. here’s about how it’s looking:

Republican Seats Leaning Democratic Takeover

AZ-08: Randy Graf (R.) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D.)
CT-05: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R.) vs. Chris Murphy (D.)
CO-7: Rick O’Donnell (R.) vs. Ed Perlmutter (D.)
FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R.) vs. Christine Jennings (D.)
FL-16: Joe Negron (R.) vs. Tim Mahoney (D.)
FL-22: Rep. Clay Shaw (R.) vs. Ron Klein (D.)
IA-01: Mike Whalen (R.) vs. Bruce Braley (D.)
IN-2: Rep. Chris Chocola (R.) vs. Joe Donnelly (D.)
IN-8: Rep. John Hostettler (R.) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D.)
NC-11: Rep. Charles Taylor (R.) vs. Heath Shuler (D.)
NY-20: Rep. John Sweeney (R.) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D.)
NY-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R.) vs. Eric Massa (D.)
OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R.) vs. John Cranley (D.)
OH-18: Joy Padgett (R.) vs. Zack Space (D.)
PA-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R.) vs. Lois Murphy (D.)
PA-7: Rep. Curt Weldon (R.) vs. Joe Sestak (D.)
PA-10: Rep. Don Sherwood (R.) vs. Chris Carney (D.)

Republican-Held Seats That Are Toss-Ups

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AZ-05: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R.) vs. Harry Mitchell (D.)
CA-11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R.) vs. Jerry McNerney (D.)
CT-2: Rep. Rob Simmons (R.) vs. Joe Courtney (D.)
CT-4: Rep. Chris Shays (R.) vs. Diane Farrell (D.)
CO-04: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R.) vs. Angie Paccione (D.)
ID-01: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D)
IL-6: Peter Roskam (R.) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D.)
IN-9: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R.) vs. Barron Hill (D.)
KY-03: Rep. Anne Northup (R.) vs. John Yarmuth (D.)
KY-04: Rep. Geoff Davis (R.) vs. Ken Lucas (D.)
NH-02: Rep. Charlie Bass (R.) vs. Paul Hodes (D.)
NM-1: Rep. Heather Wilson (R.) vs. Patricia Madrid (D.)
NY-24: Ray Meier (R.) vs. Michael Arcuri (D.)
NY-25: Rep. James Walsh (R.) vs. Dan Maffei (D.)
OH-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R.) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D.)
PA-08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R.) vs. Patrick Murphy (D.)
TX-22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R.) vs. Nick Lampson (D.)
VA-02: Rep. Thelma Drake (R.) vs. Phil Kellam (D.)
WI-08: John Gard (R.) vs. Steve Kagen (D.)

Key Competitive Seats Leaning Toward Republican Retention

AZ-01: Rep. Rick Renzi (R.) vs. Ellen Simon (D.)
CA-04: Rep. John Doolittle (R.) vs. Charlie Brown (D.)
CA-50: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R.) vs. Francine Busby (D.)
CO-5: Doug Lamborn (R.) vs. Jay Fawcett (D.)
MN-01: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R.) vs. Tim Walz (D.)
MN-06: Michele Bachmann (R.) vs. Patty Wetterling (D.)
NJ-07: Rep. Mike Ferguson (R.) vs. Linda Stender (D.)
NY-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R.) vs. Jack Davis (D.)
NV-02: Dean Heller (R.) vs. Jill Derby (D.)
NV-03: Rep. Jon Porter (R.) vs. Tessa Hafen (D.)
OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R.) vs. Victoria Wulsin (D.)
WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert (R.) vs. Darcy Burner (D.)
WY-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R.) vs. Gary Trauner (D.)

Estimate: The Democrats need to pick-up 15 seats to take over the House and the GOP will probably lose somwhere in the neighborhood of 22-29 seats.

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