Political Suicide Via Amnesty

One of the most bizarre things that we keep hearing from the “amnesty ‘n’ open borders crowd” is that the Senate bill is actually popular and will be good for the Republican Party.

The problem with that theory is that the Senate immigration bill has not only been shown to be widely disliked by the American people in poll after poll, it is systematically and thoroughly wrecking the reputations of almost everyone who’s associated with it — and keep in mind that’s prior to Tom Tancredo, The Payback Project, and who knows how many immigration groups, really haven’t even started going after senators who support amnesty.

Just take a look at the poll numbers on this immigration bill…

* Rasmussen: 50% oppose vs. 23% support

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* Survey USA: 46% oppose vs. 36% support

* Pew Research: 41% oppose vs. 33% support

* UPI-Zogby International: 56.4% view the bill unfavorably vs. 37.6% that view it favorably

* Democracy Corps: “We do not find very much voter support for the comprehensive Senate bill,” the pollsters wrote. Even Democratic voters split — with 47 percent for and 47 percent against — after hearing a description of the Senate bill, while most independents and Republicans opposed it.”

* Right Wing News Blogger Poll In June: 96% of bloggers polled are “pleased that the Senate immigration bill did not pass.”

* Insider Advantage: Lindsey Graham’s current approval rating is 31%, down from 56% in November of last year.

* Quinnipiac University poll: Mel Martinez’s approval rating is down to 37%.

* Rasmussen: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is now viewed favorably by 19% of American voters and unfavorably by 45%. Just 3% have a Very Favorable opinion while 22% hold a Very Unfavorable views.

Reid has been very visible over the past week in the furor over immigration reform. The effort to pass a bill that was more popular in Congress than among voters may have hurt public perceptions of the Democratic leader. His ratings are down from a month ago when 26% had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senator. Reid’s highest ratings were 30% favorable in February.”

* McClatchy Newspapers: New polls this week showed support for (McCain) plummeting in two key early-voting states. Tied for fifth place in Iowa, with 6 percent. Falling to fourth place in South Carolina, with 7 percent. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted both polls of likely Republican voters, which had error margins of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

This after an ongoing Senate debate on immigration that highlights McCain’s opposition to his party’s base on a hot-button issue…In a new Mason-Dixon poll released today, Thompson has 25 percent support among Republicans who are considered likely to attend the Nevada nominating caucus, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 20 percent and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 percent. McCain is fourth with 8 percent.”

The Times Online: “THE former presidential front-runner, John McCain, may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders.

….Feelings are running so high against Bush’s immigration bill, which opponents decry as an amnesty for illegal immigrants, that McCain may not win the support of Arizona, his home state on the border of Mexico.

“It looks to me like Arizona will be in play,” Pullen said. “The immigration issue is clearly hurting him with the base of the party.”

At this point, the people supporting this bill might as well be supporting putting crack in elementary school vending machines because quite frankly, it probably couldn’t do much more damage to their political careers than this bill.

PS: This bill, if it passes will probably cost the GOP 4-6 Senate seats, reduce the likelihood that the GOP will win the presidency in 2008, and cost the GOP 10-20 million dollars (or more) in fund raising (It’s possible that it has already cost 10 million in lost phone solicitations, RNC and RNSC contributions, and President’s dinner funds) so that estimate may be low.

All of that is to get through a bill that is hated by conservatives, hated by the American people, and unlikely to pass the House.

Even if the bill is killed at this point, it’s still going to do serious damage, but that is far preferable to the utter havoc it would wreak on the GOP in 2008 if it passes.

I consult for the Duncan Hunter campaign.

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