Predictions for South Carolina Tonight

A lot of people are talking about the latest ARG poll showing a last minute surge for Fred Thompson. It puts him at 21% beating Romney for the third slot by nine. Rainy weather is dampening the turn-out of voters, and who knows which candidate that will favor. I would think that issue voters would be the more determined ones to brave the weather. That could benefit Fred as well. Of course, much of my thoughts could be wishful thinking.

Captain Ed:

Thompson’s score won’t be enough for him to gain many delegates, but it does appear to be enough to prevail over Romney for third place, and that should keep him in the race through February 5th.

Overall, I am going to agree with my fellow wishful thinker friend, Rick Moran. Late breaking undecideds could push Fred into the second place spot, yet the odds are unlikely. Fred ends up with a clean third place spot and it will be enough to keep in the game till Super Tuesday. So in this scenario we end up seeing McCain take South Carolina with a win, followed by Dukakabee, and a clean third for Fred.

Extra: Take a look at the data on this under-reported South Carolina poll from FOX(pdf). 19% were undecided as of the 17th, and then the really interesting thing is that for the question of “Which Candidate Can beat the Democrat in 2008?”, Thompson’s at the top of the list!

My friend Lobo’s gut tells him that Thompson will win the state tonight. We’ve made a bet that will be quite embarrassing for me if he is right. Still, for the sake of Fred, I hope he’s correct. Lets see how close I get.

Crossposted from Stop the ACLU

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