Q&A Friday #22: Will The 2008 GOP Nominee Be To The Left Or Right Of Bush?

Question: “Who will be the Rep nom in 08, and will they be to theh right or left of Bush?” — D-Vega

Answer: It’s too early to know whom the nominee will be. However, assuming the GOP doesn’t bomb out in 2006 (and I don’t think we will), I expect a nominee more conservative than Bush.

The reasons for that are twofold.

#1) Politically, if you’re smart, you move to the middle when you’re losing, not when you’re winning, and the GOP is on a big national winning streak. Why should the winners (The GOP) go with a candidate who’s even more like the losers (The Democrats) in a national election?

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#2) The base will be looking for a candidate whom they perceive as being strong in the same areas where Bush is strong (foreign policy, taxes, abortion, a pro-marriage amendment) & they’re also going to want a candidate who looks strong in his weak spots (deficit reduction as well as illegal immigration/border control).

Keep in mind that liberals may think George Bush is this ultra-conservative President, but the truth is that he’s probably a little more conservative than his dad, but far less conservative than Reagan. My guess is that in 2008 we’ll end up with a candidate somewhere between W. & Reagan on the conservatism scale.

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