Q&A Friday #66: Do You Think A Nuke Will Be Used In An American City In The Next 50 Years?

Question: “Do you think that a nuclear weapon of any sort will actually be used on an American city in the next 50 years?” — sabiticus

Answer: Short answer: yes.

Long answer: As technology and world economies have moved forward, it has gotten easier and easier for nations to build the bomb.

At the moment, we’re already in a position where some very unsavory and unstable nations, like North Korea and Pakistan, have nuclear weapons. Worse yet, because Western Europe no longer has the means or the will to stand up for civilization, world pressure on nations NOT to build the bomb is weaker than ever.

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So, I don’t think it’s out of the question that we might see 15-20 nations, many of them basket cases, building nuclear weapons over the next 20 years. For example, if Iran manages to build nukes, you can be sure that nations like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq will build them, too. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan building nukes either if we don’t hurry up and disarm North Korea. Then, once Hugo Chavez or some other Castro wannabe builds a nuke in South America, you can look for a round of nuke building down there.

What it all comes down to is that we may very well be heading into a period where nuclear weapons will become much more available and thus, will be much more likely to be used.

Some people make the assumption that mutually assured destruction will keep nukes from being used, but that’s a very bad assumption to make. You have to consider the fact that some of the nations that get these nuclear weapons will be run by people who aren’t rational (think Kim-Jung-Il), have very bad judgment (think about leaders like Saddam), are religious fanatics (think about Ahmadinejad), or just don’t put nearly as high a value on human life, ours or their own citizens, as we do (most of the non-Western world).

You also have to consider that if these nations were to use terrorists as a delivery system, we literally might not have any idea where the nuclear weapon that vaporizes New York or Los Angeles was originally made.

At this point, we will not be able to get Pakistan to give up their nukes because they will fear Indian and China’s nuclear weapons. But, we can put enough pressure on North Korea to get them to give them up and we are capable of stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. We would be extremely wise to do so because the price of failure would likely be nuclear weapons going off in American cities one day. If and when that day happens, they will howl, complain, and try to figure who’s to blame for letting it happen, but the real culprits will be the politicians today, who are standing back and allowing the nuclear genie to slip out of the bottle right in front of their eyes.

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