The Big 9 States Still In Play For The Presidential Election

21 Oct, 2004 by John Hawkins

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With about a week and a half to go until the presidential election, there still appear to be 9 battleground states that could change from red to blue states or vice versa without a landslide win for either side.

Remember that because of the 2000 census, if the states broke just as they did in 2000, Bush would win 278-260 this time. So keep that in mind as you take a look at the 9 states that will likely decide the election this time around…

State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: SurveyUSA Kerry +1
Latest poll spread: Bush +1
10 poll trend: Bush wins 6. Kerry wins 3. 1 tie.

State: Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Fox News Bush +5
Latest poll spread: Kerry +0.2
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 5. Bush wins 4. 1 tie.

State: Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: SurveyUSA Kerry +6
Latest poll spread: Kerry +2.8
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 7. Bush wins 2. 1 tie.

State: Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: CNN/USATGallup Bush +6
Latest poll spread: Bush + 1.5
10 poll trend: Bush wins 5. Kerry wins 4. 1 tie.

State: Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Arg Tie
Latest poll spread: Kerry +0.7
10 poll trend: Bush wins 6. Kerry wins 3. 1 tie.

State: New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Rasmussen +2
Latest poll spread: Bush +1.3
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 4. Bush wins 3. 3 ties.

State: Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Rasmussen Tie.
Latest poll spread: Kerry +2.4
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 6. 3 ties. Bush wins 1

State: Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Mitchell Research Bush +4
Latest poll spread: Kerry +3.5
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 7. Bush wins 2. 1 tie.

State: New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: ARG Kerry +2
Latest poll spread: Kerry +0.7
10 poll trend: Kerry wins 7. Bush wins 3.

Statistics culled from the invaluable Real Clear Politics