The Coming Republican Super-Majority?

There has been a lot of talk about a “Conservative crack-up” of late.

The Libertarians are squabbling with the Social Conservatives, the Fiscal Conservatives are duking it out with the Rockefeller Republicans, the Paleocons are railing against the Neocons, & there are dogfights going on about immigration, deficits, and all manner of issues related to Social Conservatism.

And let’s face it: The GOP controls the Presidency, the Senate (55-44-1), the House (232-203), the majority of Governorships (28-22) and State Legislatures (20 – 19 – 10 split – 1 non-partisan), and, heck, we even appointed the majority of Supreme Court Justices although O’Connor and Kennedy are activist mediocrities.

So, doesn’t it almost have to be all downhill from here? Actually, no. Michael Barone has the goods and they would send a chill down my spine were I a liberal Democrat (Emphasis mine):

“And the hardest numbers in politics are election results. Most journalists and politicians don’t spend much time looking at them. They should. Because the 2004 presidential election results tell us that Republicans are in even stronger shape than their 55-45 and 232-203 Senate and House margins suggest.

Start with the Senate. George W. Bush carried 31 states that elect 62 senators. There are nine Republican senators from Kerry states and 16 Democratic senators from Bush states. Many of these are from states that were close in the presidential election. But there are 11 Democrats and only three Republicans from states where their presidential nominee got less than 47 percent of the vote. There are more Democrats with political incentives to vote with Bush than there are Republicans with incentives to vote against him.

As for the House, we now know which presidential candidate carried each of the 435 congressional districts, thanks to Polidata, which crunched the numbers for National Journal and the Almanac of American Politics (of which I am co-author). These numbers surprised even some political pros. Bush carried 255 districts and John Kerry only 180. In all, 41 Democrats represent Bush districts and 18 Republicans represent Kerry districts. Eliminating the districts where the House member’s presidential candidate won 47 percent or more, we find only five Republicans in strong Kerry districts but 30 Democrats in strong Bush districts.”

Yes, you’re reading that right. The potential is there for the GOP to significantly expand their leads in the Senate and the House over the next few years.

Will it happen? There are no guarantees in life so don’t count your chickens before they hatch, but I do think it’s possible that we could get to a point within the next 4-12 years where we have a Republican President, with a large majority in the House, a veto-proof majority in the Senate, and a Supreme Court that has 5 or more Scalia/Thomas style justices.

Those would be heady days indeed…

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