The Hispanic Immigration Backlash Against The GOP Hasn’t Materialized Yet

28 Jun, 2007 by John Hawkins

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According to USA Today, the Hispanic backlash against the GOP for the immigration bill is already underway,

“A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll indicates that Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they’re Democrats or lean that way.

…Including independents who “lean” to one party or the other, Democrats lead Republicans among Hispanics 58% to 20%.”

Those aren’t great numbers. However, let’s do a little math. The GOP is trailing Dems 58% to 20% in party registration. If we take that roughly 3 to 1 margin and apply it over the remaining 22% of Hispanics, we go 73% to 27%.

Well, the GOP only got 30% of the Hispanic vote in 2006 and if anything, the GOP’s standing with almost every demographic group, including Hispanics, has probably dropped since 2006.

So, if we’ve gone from 30% to 27% and some of the drop can be attributed to general dissatisfaction with GOP, how much of an impact has the immigration debate had on Hispanic voters so far? Very little, if any.

Does that mean that the GOP should be satisfied with its popularity amongst Hispanics? No, and we definitely need to work to improve our standing with Hispanics — but, to be honest, that could be fairly said about every group across the board at this point.

Also, it’s worth keeping in mind that when Bush pulled roughly 38% to 39% (that 44% number you see tossed around is a result of bad exit polling data) of Hispanic voters in 2004, his approval rating was just north of 50%. Now, it’s just above 30%. So, is it really a big surprise that Hispanic support for the GOP has eroded so badly when Bush’s popularity has dropped so much? No, it’s really not.