The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (5th Edition)

It’s time to reevaluate the Senate races again, although it’s still early and these rankings will change between now and the election. The higher the rating is, the greater the chance is that the seat might change parties.

Dark Horse Races: (These are real long shot races)

15) Jon Kyl* (R) vs. Jim Pederson (D)
14) John Ensign* (R) vs. Jack Carter

Competitive: (The challengers are behind, but within striking distance.)

13) Mark Kennedy (R) vs. Amy Klobuchar (D) (Dem Seat)
12) Maria Cantwell* (D) vs. Mike McGavick (R)
11) Debbie Stabenow* (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)
10) George Allen* (R) vs. James Webb (D)
9) Michael Steele (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D) (Dem Seat)

Dogfights: (If election were today, it would be a coin flip.)

7) Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D) (Rep Seat)
7) Robert Menendez* (D) vs. Tom Kean (R)
6) Lincoln Chafee* (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
5) Jim Talent* (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)

Danger Zone: (If the election were today, there would be a take-over.)

4) Mike DeWine* (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
3) Rick Santorum* (R) vs. Bob Casey (D)
2) Conrad Burns* (R) vs. John Tester (D)
1) Joe Lieberman* (I) vs. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)

PS #1: Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

PS #2: Lieberman’s seat would flip if he won, since he is running as an independent.

PS #3: A Senate seat wild guesstimate based on the numbers that are out today: Republicans (50), Democrats (48), and Independents that would vote for Democratic control of the House (2).

PS #4: The GOP money edge should start to become apparent over the next couple of weeks. Cross your fingers and hope that helps.

PS #5: Lieberman is pounding Lamont, Burns is running an awful campaign, Santorum’s momentum seems to have died, DeWine is gaining on Brown, Ford is running an excellent campaign, Kean can win if he doesn’t run out of money, Steele is running an excellent campaign, Allen seems to be recovering nicely from the N-bomb controversy and Bouchard, McGavick, and Kennedy need to start closing the gap ASAP or they’re going to be in the dark horse category in another two weeks.

Also see,

The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (1st Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (2nd Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (3rd Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (4th Edition)

Correction: I forgot about Bernie Sanders. With him included, there are 3 independents voting as Democrats.

Correction to the correction: I was right the first time, there are only 2 independents running. Sanders will replace Jeffords. Doh!

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