Who Does Fred Thompson’s Exit From The Race Help The Most?

23 Jan, 2008 by John Hawkins

Print this article Font size -16+

With Fred Thompson leaving the race, a lot of people are wondering whom his supporters will gravitate towards.

First off, I’ve seen a couple of online polls (here & here) that indicate Fred’s supporters will break heavily towards Mitt Romney, at 70% plus clip.

On the other hand, when I polled bloggers on this topic, they seemed to split more evenly amongst the candidates with Mitt and Rudy benefitting the most,

2) Which candidate would you like to see as the Republican Party’s nominee out of this group?

A) Rudy Giuliani: 4 — 8%
B) Mike Huckabee: 2 — 4%
C) John McCain: 3 — 6%
D) Mitt Romney: 6 — 11%
E) Fred Thompson: 38 — 72%

3) Which candidate would you like to see as the Republican Party’s nominee out of this group?

A) Rudy Giuliani: 17 — 33%
B) Mike Huckabee: 8 — 15%
C) John McCain: 9 — 17%
D) Mitt Romney: 18 — 35%

My instinct is that poll is probably a little more representative of how things would work in the real world. Fred Thompson’s supporters would probably break down like so,

* A significant group of them go for the most conservative remaining candidate in the race, Mitt Romney.

* Another group of them would probably go for Rudy Giuliani, the moderate candidate who has been beaten up the least over the last month.

* Then, a smaller group would probably gravitate towards Mike Huckabee, as much as anything because he’s the only remaining Southerner.

* Last but not least, another small group would probably move towards the front runner, John McCain.