The Real Reason We Have A Budget Problem That No One Has The Guts To Talk About

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The Real Reason We Have A Budget Problem That No One Has The Guts To Talk About

Written By : John Hawkins

Do you want to know the real reason we have a budget problem in America? It’s something that most politicians, conservative or liberal, Republican or Democrat, don’t have the courage to address because it would make so many people angry. Happily, I’m not running for office; so I don’t have to spoon feed anyone.

Are you ready?

The real reason we have a budget problem in America is because the middle class citizens in America aren’t willing to pay in taxes what their Social Security and Medicare benefits are worth or dramatically scale back the amount of benefits they receive. Instead, what they want, is for someone else to pay for a large part of their Social Security and Medicare benefits. Since the difference between what the middle class pays in and receives is too great to be covered by the rich and politicians don’t have the courage to tell them “no,” the country is headed towards financial oblivion.

If everyone in the middle class got no more out of Social Security and Medicare than they put into the programs, it wouldn’t entirely fix our spending problem, but we certainly wouldn’t have a serious long-term debt issue.

You can get mad about it and you can deny it all you like, but over the over the long haul, the only way we’re going to be able to keep from going bankrupt is to find a way to even out the amount of money that middle class citizens are paying into Social Security and Medicare with the amount of money they’re taking out of the program. One way or the other, that is going to happen, if only because we’re going to go bankrupt if we don’t do it.

Anonymous

There you go with that “logic” thing again, John…
Bill Dalasio

John,

I’d love to agree with you, but the only way you get to the notion that the middle class doesn’t pay enough for their Social Security benefits (I’ve never researched Medicare) is to ignore discounting.

The maximum allowable benefit for social security is $2,366 per month assuming retirement at age 67. Assuming death at 90 and a 5% interest rate, that translates to a present value at retirement of $396,382.

Now, let’s compare that to a middle class guy making an average income over his lifetime of $40,000 per year. Given the FICA tax of 6.2% paid by him and his employer, that translates to a monthly contribution of $413. Assuming the same 5% long-term interest rate and a career that runs from 21 to 67, that worker would accumulate a nest egg at retirement of $837,594.

Now, you might argue, “What about inflation?”. Okay, that any time you can get a real return above 3.077%, the value of Social Security benefits is less than the value of contributions.

Anonymous

What if we have another bubble burst? Every 10 to 15 years we seem to have one. It is a fair question.

Lets use my pops as an example. He retired out of the marines in 78-79. Right after that he landed a job as a defense contractor, Developing better artillery for the Army/Marines. (He helped write the software on the Paladin) Making a boat load of money he dumped it into the market. During the 87 crash he was wiped out. When you dump your savings into the market you are taking a huge risk. At least with SS you know you will get a check. With the proper reforms you still will for the next 50-100 years.

My dad is 72 and still working because of the market crash.

Bill Dalasio

With all due respect to your father (and please understand I’m not attacking him; I’m genuinely grateful for his service), it sounds like he did a phenomenally bad job of managing his portfolio. A well diversified portfolio of equities held made up its losses from the 1987 crash within about a year and a half. And even the most aggressive privatization proposals I’ve seen don’t envisage speculative portfolio strategies. Over the long run, a well diversified portfolio of equities generates significant positive returns over most rolling time frames (the S&P’s lowest 45-year return from 1/1/73 – using the inception of the index as the start date – is 1.6%). But, maybe you’re too risk averse for that. A diversified portfolio of high grade bonds is still not going to have too much trouble beating 3.08% over inflation in the long run.
But, ultimately, this is beside the point. Whether you believe in a market-oriented pension system or not, it still doesn’t make sense to talk about money over time without considering the time value of money. When you talk about whether people are getting more out of the system than they are putting in , you need to bear in mind the fact that they have some reasonable expectation of return. That isn’t right or left, that’s simple economics.

Anonymous

He could of managed it very poorly for sure. I was 12 so a little young to pay attention. He traveled 48 weeks out of the year around that time for work. Where is was going with that was. During every crash people loose what they had. Not everyone gets it back. With retirement there is no plan b 99% of the time. My real problem is. This nation was wealthy because we made something. Now wealth is made by trading paper. Credit default swaps sound like a insurance scam to me how about you?

At almost 36 (t-minus 6 days) I dont have any retirement saved up. I sunk my money into my Small business. As we stand I will be opening my 3rd store end of this month. Not bad for 2 years into it.

I do play with penny stocks but that is my version of online poker.

Bill Dalasio

Well, for what it’s worth, it sounds like you’re doing the right thing for your retirement. A successful business offers a great long-term return. It’d be nice to add some diversification, but you still have time for that.

As one of those paper traders, I’ll say that there’s nothing most of us would like more than to see a resurgence of the real sectors of the economy. It’s much better for our business if there are a lot of competent, well-managed consumers and sources if capital. The problem is, as you should know as well as anyone, that pursuits of a perfect society make successfully managing most enterprises all the harder. That’s why I feel so strongly that we need to limit the tax and regulatory climate from overextending

http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

Ask your granddad how well the last big economic burst hurt. Ask all those older people you on the left pretend to care about and insist we cannot cut anything will do if the economy gets so bad that there’s no money to pay anyone in need.

Nah, won’t matter a bit.
http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

Ask your granddad how well the last big economic burst hurt. Ask all those older people you on the left pretend to care about and insist we cannot cut anything will do if the economy gets so bad that there’s no money to pay anyone in need.

Nah, won’t matter a bit.

JoeBritton

Social Security has been in surplus since its inception. Until the Congress decided to use that surplus to lower budget deficits and cover taxcuts since Reagan, there was no discussion of shortfalls. It is estimated that 40% of the National Debt is the cumulative result of taxcuts, most of which went to the wealthiest Americans.

The rest of Americans just want what they paid for during their working lives.

Anonymous

flagged for trolling. Hey moderators, you banned this person last week. Why is he still allowed to post?

Martin Hale

TDN, wondering the same thing, I went back a few days to grab a copy of the text of one of the moderator comments in which Joe is told he’s banned and I found that the moderator comment was now headed under the ubiquitous “Guest” username.

Among other uses, Disqus applies that username “Guest: retroactively when you delete a comment which was made under your account name. This leads me to believe that the account which we all thought was a moderator might have been either bogus or it was revoked/deleted.

JoeBritton

Your antiintellectualism has been noted as well as your echoing the same old standard right wing malarkey. Apparently, not having to deal with alternative views, make your opinions more valid, at least in your own mind. Are there any thinkers left on this site?
Anonymous

Wow, then that would be a prank from hell. You are correct, the guest tag is applied when someone on the website side shuts a account down.

Which would explain the bogus posts claiming Vega was hit with 2 strikes for a permanent ban on posts that were not what Nixon calls “bad”.

Worth emailing Hawkins about Nixon supposes.

Martin Hale

I would hope John already knows about it. He may have been the one who banned that account and/or asked that it be shut down.

One can imagine all manner of scenarios from the mundane to the wildly speculative to explain it all. Whether we’ll ever know what happened or not is not clear.

Most likely scenario for me is that someone took John’s absence from the site as an opportunity to play a prank. As to who it was, I couldn’t hazard a guess – it could have been a lot of people
Anonymous

Nixon thinks John is the only one who can pull the plug on a DisQus account.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

Interesting. I had noticed that the “moderator” user name had only been created that Monday (July 4th) and then the moderator proceeded to threaten me with banning.

And when I told him/her to not “scold me and say nothing to other posters”, nothing happened.

And then my comments stopped being flagged.
JoeBritton

Truth is Hawkins should pull the plug on you and Nixon for trying to run this site. Always remember Nixon, Hawkins was a poor man with a dog who struggled with poverty, so that like Nixon, he never forgot the poor. For that reason I resent your using his name because if there were ever a liberal Republican in our history, it was Nixon, and that went far beyond the Food Stamps Act.

You’re a disgrace to the Nixon legacy.
Anonymous

Joe, email Hawkins and tell him to ban Nixon then. Copy Nixon if you will.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

I could take a guess as to who it was. There are only a select few who are that obsessed with trolls and who would specifically cite “Shergald” (a user name that hasn’t appeared here in years) in their comments.
JoeBritton

Looks to me as if Nixon and Hale want to run the blog, and determine who does and who doesn’t get to speak. And in typical anti-intellectual fashion, both of you prefer to use force to get rid of unwanted thoughts than use brain power to counteract them. Why am I not surprised? It is not easy being a geriatric watching your own mind grow narrow.
Martin Hale

Looks to me as if Nixon and Hale want to run the blog…

It only looks like that to your fevered and paranoid-ish mind, Joe. Most of the rest of us, including D-Vega have a passing interest in who was spoofing the site the other day.

But we do understand your “special” way of viewing things. And at the rate at which your comments get flagged and pulled, I suppose I can understand you thinking the world is out to get you.

And the real kicker is that it’s true – the world is out to get you.
Martin Hale

Looks to me as if Nixon and Hale want to run the blog…

It only looks like that to your fevered and paranoid-ish mind, Joe. Most of the rest of us, including D-Vega have a passing interest in who was spoofing the site the other day.

But we do understand your “special” way of viewing things. And at the rate at which your comments get flagged and pulled, I suppose I can understand you thinking the world is out to get you.

And the real kicker is that it’s true – the world is out to get you.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

And my comment regarding my investigation disappeared.
RWN_Moderator

Martin Hale, TheDickNixon, and Vega all three of you boys are banned!
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

That’s not funny, dude.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

A plot against Vega?

The Sweetheart Teddy Bear?
Anonymous

Nixon is pretty sure he knows who did it, but, alas, as Nixon is not a moderator it cannot be proven.
StanW

Interesting that someone was able to prank the board. Guess it could have gone wither way. Might have even been more fun if it was Conservative posts that got killed on site.

Whoever it was, I’ll bet they had a good time doing it! ;)
Anonymous

Nixon is pretty sure he knows who did it, but, alas, as Nixon is not a moderator it cannot be proven.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

Both Nixon and StanW know full well who it was.

Why he targeted me is anyone’s guess. Maybe to start a flame war?
StanW

Vega, your mind-reading ability has always been more than questionable. If you think you know who it is, then make the accusation. Don’t tell me what I do and don’t know, COWARD!
StanW

Just because you are a paranoid coward doesn’t mean a thing, Vega.

If you think you know who it is, then SAY SO!

Or stop whining about your pathetic posts being removed!
StanW

Just because you are a paranoid coward doesn’t mean a thing, Vega.

If you think you know who it is, then SAY SO!

Or stop whining about your pathetic posts being removed!
StanW

Just because you are a paranoid coward doesn’t mean a thing, Vega.

If you think you know who it is, then SAY SO!

Or stop whining about your pathetic posts being removed!
StanW

Interesting theory, and NOT who I thought it was, Vega.

Like I said, your mind-reading ability stinks.
StanW

You are missing the one person that would benefit the most from a situation like this, Vega…

YOU!
StanW

Simple, Vega.

You have changed your persona on this board multiple times. When Obama was elected, when you got pissed at me, and now when you went to the “kindler, gentler Vega” in your pathetic quest to be a moderator. You have done well to keep your idiocy and meltdowns in check, although your lies have remained.

But by pranking the board and making it look like all Liberal views were suppressed, you could make the case that a Liberal was needed as a Moderator to “balance things out.”

IP addresses can be masked and changed. Anyone, even you, could do that. And by blaming Martha or Trench, you look good to Hawkins.

It is a impotent and pathetic ploy on your part, Vega, but one you are VERY capable of!
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

And now my comment cracking the case has been flagged.

There will be repercussions for targeting Vega.

And Stan, I have no clue as to how to mask my IP address or anything like that. It’s was your boy and you know it.
StanW

Oh, so you “cracked the case” did you. You are trying to tell us that you can’t mask an IP Address but that you KNOW who it was. You don’t have a clue.

And what repercussions Vega? What are you going to do about it, you pissy little bitch. Will you change your name to something fierce. Or maybe give us all the silent treatment? Yeah, that’ll show us!

I don’t have a BOY, Vega. And I told you to stop telling me what I do and do not know.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

Case Proven.

I should have been the prosecutor on the Casey Anthony case.

Why would you do that, TR? What did I do to you? I was always pretty friendly to you and now you involve me in your little hissy fit with Mr. Hawkins? That’s f*cked up dude.
StanW

Still waiting on those repercussions, Vega.

Maybe you could change your name again.

Or maybe post as mahatma and paranor and call us all mean people.
StanW

“There will be reprecussion for messign with Vega.”

Yeah, your reprecussions are you’ll whine more than normal. And you haven’t been a friendly face on this board for over two year.

Bitch, moan, and run away, Vega. Those are your strengths!
StanW

So you threatened someone on Mr. Hawkin’s board? I thought that is what got Trench banned, Vega. More fo your historic double standard. I hope Mr. Hawkin’s bans you for it!

And the reason you have to keep telling us all how you are always right is because no one would know that from reading your posts. You lie on this board when the truth would work just as well.
StanW

Hey Vega… Were you right when you said…
•”Reps control Congress and the Senate can be filibustered” – No, that was A LIE!
•”Global Warming theory doesn’t hold that it will get hotter everywhere.” – No, that was A LIE!
•”Obama has never been a member of, or trained, or organized for ACORN.” – No, that was A LIE!
•How about the times you advocated violence in response to a persons free speech rights. No you were WRONG then too.

Vega always LIES. Vega SAYS he is always right in an impotent attempt to convince HIMSELF that he is right.
StanW

Ending this discussion, you have yet to strat anything, Vega.

You threatned “reprecussions”, then backed off of that threat like the little nancy-boy you are.

Tell us Vega. How do you know Trench is the prankster? You have given us all a bunch of “Becasue *I* Said So” but no FACTS?

And for me to be angry at you being right, that would mean you would have to be right about something, Vega.

Dance for me BITCH!
StanW

Ending this discussion, you have yet to strat anything, Vega.

You threatned “reprecussions”, then backed off of that threat like the little nancy-boy you are.

Tell us Vega. How do you know Trench is the prankster? You have given us all a bunch of “Becasue *I* Said So” but no FACTS?

And for me to be angry at you being right, that would mean you would have to be right about something, Vega.

Dance for me BITCH!
StanW

Why did you remove your comments, Vega. Were you too ashamed at what you had written? Or did your words not fit into the “kinder and gentler” Vega you are trying to fool everyone with?
StanW

Why did you remove your comments, Vega. Were you too ashamed at what you had written? Or did your words not fit into the “kinder and gentler” Vega you are trying to fool everyone with?
Anonymous

I bet it was stan….
StanW

And you would live up to your name, FAIL!
Trench_Raider

Why would you do that, TR? What did I do to you? I was always pretty friendly to you and now you involve me in your little hissy fit with Mr. Hawkins? That’s f*cked up dude

Ok, I’m going to break my silence and step in here for a second. I’ve been watching this whole epidose for the last week. (yes, I still read the site daily even if I choose not to post rihght now….note I said “choose not to”) I must say that most of it has made me chuckle, as I’m on board for pretty much anything negative that happens to Hawkins and his site right now. But the one thing I have disagreed with was the targeting of Vega’s posts. Yes, he trolls a lot these days, but he’s not even in the legue of those who really need to be blottted out. Going after him was wrong. But on the whole the others who got slammed deserve it.

Vega, it aint me dude. Stan is right one one issue. It’s child’s play to mask an IP and do the things the fake moderator did last week. (assuming it’s the same guy) It could be anyone.

But if I had to float a guess, I wold say it’s Paranor. This sort of stunt is exactly the sort of thing a 4chan kiddie would do. Moreover, the cartoon face posted above is a popular 4chan “meme” called “troll face”. Assuming that it is Paranor, Stan’s specualtion that it is a false flag opertion to make leftists on the board look like hapless victims would make alot of sense.

Sory, Nixon, I don’t think it’s Martha as you speculated earlier. Martha is too hung up on that persona to try something this subtle.

Finally, I knew that the “moderator” posts were a hoax the first time I saw them last week. That’s because Hawkins has not put his moderator staff in place yet. I know this becasue one of the co-bloggers of the site is on friendly terms with me and feeds me the internal goings on from time to time. (that’s how for example I knew that crthns had gotten a 24 hour ban last month) No I won’t tell you who that insider is for obvious reasons. But it was obvious that anyone claiming to be a site mod’ was lying.

I’m off to work now, but I’ll check back in tonight to see if there any more developments.

TR
JoeBritton

Once the censorship begins, it moves inexorably to banning. When right wing personality types (see John Dean’s book) rumble, everything in their way is bulldozed. It’s how Hitler gained control of Germany in the 30s. In this case it is really the work of a few grouchy senile old men. Yeah, them.

JoeBritton

Dick, because RWN doesn’t need policemen here to monitor thought. That’s an old commie presciption, which is longer active, thanks to Gorbachev.

So off with you, to the Gulag.
JoeBritton

Wrong, Nixon. I was never banned from RWN. I happen to be one of a few RWN Emeritus bloggers, who helped this blog get off the ground. You’re just a grouchy old newcomer who can’t remember the days of desperation, when we had to click ads just to keep the blog from going under, and John had to eat dog nibbles. Those were impoverished days. If it weren’t for socialism, i.e., unemployment insurance, we might never be here talking (thanks Democrats). And RWN would not be a place where lonely grouchy old men like you Nixon could come for friendship.

I could go on.

JoeBritton

Postscript:

today there were 6,793 site visits, high for a summer month. I remember when it was less than a thousand. Can you understand that it was debate and conflict between parties of a different nature that built this blog. Certainly it had nothing to do with rigid unbending minds such as presented by you Nixon and Hale. You stiffle expansion because your words are so predictable. Same old. Why bother reading your stuff? I have known what you have to say for many months now. So you’re a right wing Republican. Who doesn’t know the view? Ugh. Why come here to read the same old malarkey?

Bill Dalasio

Plain out inaccurate and dishonest.

Oh, and by the way, flagged as banned.

JoeBritton

Ya gotta love this site’s commentary: adolescents and grouchy old men at each other’s throats. It is a conflict of style mostly since content is pretty much thrown out with the wind.

Bill Dalasio

Damn, JoeBritton, you really are a tool, do you know that? Most of us are able to maintain civil debates, regardless of our differing views. You’re the one playing the perpetual victim. Has it occurred to you to wonder why most of us can get along with Vega, huckupchuck, or even tpd or fbf, but not you? Here’s a hint, it’s not because we’re trying to silence your ever-so-brave and subversive insights. It’s because you’re an obnoxious little douche who can’t carry on a conversation beyond spouting off a trite little talking point with, at best, a tangental relationship to the topic at hand. After inserting yourself in the conversation, not in an honest exchange of opinions, but as a posing little turd with a completely unearned presumption of superiority, your whinging about being picked on rings much more than hollow. You can’t even get along with Martin Hale one of the most polite, civil and considered commentators on the Internet. No one here likes you. The regular liberal posters here strike me as embarrassed by you, to my mind rightfully so. You’re a horse’s ass who does more to associate liberal opinion with the mindless spouting of unsupported, moronic talking points than any of us would care to attempt. If you have a problem with the conversation, please go elsewhere. You will not be missed.

JoeBritton

And the Medicare problem is not going to be resolved by sticking elderly people with more medical bills. Except for the wealthy ones, they just don’t have the income.

The problem really goes to our corporate run medical system: it costs almost twice as much as medical systems elsewhere (you name it), and doesn’t even succeed in covering everyone. I see our medical providers at work on the TV every night spending billions to get more business or sell more drugs.

And the only reason it “appears” that the elderly get more out of Medicare than they pay for is the COST of medical care in America. That should be obvious to everyone.

StanW

The REAL reason we are have a budget problem is the our government spends more than it takes in. And it spends that money on things it should not be spending it on.

Economics 101, people!
obi eleven

John,

I agree that the middle class should have SS/MC benefits scaled back or even eliminated, it is not because people are receiving more than they paid in. The reason is because government handouts like this should not have existed in the first place.

Even at modest returns, someone contributing 6.2% of their salary (really 12.4%, since employers pay the other half) into a private retirement program would have exponentially higher returns at retirement. Simple math would win the day in that argument.

I’d love to have that 12.4% in my own pocket to invest as I please. But there’s no way I’ll EVER get that much back from the government from SS or MC. Sorry.

Many middle class savers recognized that simple fact, and are saving money over and above what is contributed to SS; because it is NOT enough to retire on, even if SS is still solvent a few years down the road.
Anonymous

I would agree with you if SOS were not wasted by the Politicians every year. SOS taxes are not an investment for the future, they are spent/wasted every year to finance that years debt–reduce the debt for any given year. People put money into private retirement accounts because it is their money. SOS is not the contributers money, it is the recipients and the Politicians money to spend/waste…that is the problem with SOS in a nutshell.
Anonymous

There are many problems with SS, but systemically most of them could be fixed by raising the retirement age and tying more benefits to disability. SS was intended to be a safety net for the elderly that were unable to work…it’s turned into an income supplement for the demographic class of America that holds the most wealth.

Raise the retirement age to 69 or 70, pay for nursing home care for the disabled up until then and shave a nice big chunk of money off the liability.

But the real problem I see with the budget is the $850 billion in Medicaid and miscellaneous welfare payments that goes largely to able-bodied adults. That’s where we should be cutting first. I don’t have a problem supporting people that can’t work, but it’s a different story for those that can but aren’t.
Anonymous

There are many problems with SS, but systemically most of them could be fixed by raising the retirement age and tying more benefits to disability. SS was intended to be a safety net for the elderly that were unable to work…it’s turned into an income supplement for the demographic class of America that holds the most wealth.

Raise the retirement age to 69 or 70, pay for nursing home care for the disabled up until then and shave a nice big chunk of money off the liability.

But the real problem I see with the budget is the $850 billion in Medicaid and miscellaneous welfare payments that goes largely to able-bodied adults. That’s where we should be cutting first. I don’t have a problem supporting people that can’t work, but it’s a different story for those that can but aren’t.
Anonymous

There are many problems with SS, but systemically most of them could be fixed by raising the retirement age and tying more benefits to disability. SS was intended to be a safety net for the elderly that were unable to work…it’s turned into an income supplement for the demographic class of America that holds the most wealth.

Raise the retirement age to 69 or 70, pay for nursing home care for the disabled up until then and shave a nice big chunk of money off the liability.

But the real problem I see with the budget is the $850 billion in Medicaid and miscellaneous welfare payments that goes largely to able-bodied adults. That’s where we should be cutting first. I don’t have a problem supporting people that can’t work, but it’s a different story for those that can but aren’t.
http://www.vega.com Vega – Sweetheart Teddy Bear

The real problem is not the middle class not paying enough taxes. It’s the middle class that worked 20, 30, 40 years ago.
It’s the people who are retiring now. The people in the middle class now (like myself) don’t think we’re ever gonna get those benefits.

We’re supporting the old folks, which is fine. But we should call it what it is - A Senior Tax.

We should be taxed (especially the younger people) for the benefits of the old folks (sicne their hard work and sacrifice allowed us to get, like, all this freedom and smartphones). And as that generation dies off, the Senior Tax becomes less and less.

And then you mandate (yes, mandate) 401ks for everyone now, so you won’t need SS 40 years from now.

But the people who are getting their benefits now, must keep getting their benefits, otherwise they will be hell to pay for both parties. So it will never happen.

THAT is the budget problem.
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Nick1936

Let us start by repaying the 2.5 trillion dollars the congress borrowed from the Social security fund and replaced it with United State government IOUs
Nick1936

Let us start by repaying the 2.5 trillion dollars the congress borrowed from the Social security fund and replaced it with United State government IOUs
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