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Hurricane Irene Wrapup: Alarmists, Kooks, And Data, Oh My!
Written By : William Teach

In the wake of Hurricane Irene (and in advance and during), the Cult Of Gore really attempted to push their dying religion through Irene. And here we have another, as Warmist Katie Fehrenbacher pushes the same failed doctrine

Looks like the global rise in extreme weather events (cough, Irene) hasn’t been enough to make Americans more concerned about the issue of climate change. But extreme weather has been causing certain regions, particularly with dry, hot climates, to worry more about climate change. Essentially if extreme weather particularly effects your region, you’re going to be far more worried about it — guess that’s human nature.

“Damn it, why won’t you anti-science people buy our snake oil!!!!” Of course, “extreme weather events” is code word for “man-induced global warming.” Funny how we hadn’t had one of these “extreme weather events” make landfall in the US in over 1075 days. We haven’t had a Category 3 or higher hit the US since 2005. And no Cat 3 or higher on the east coast since 2004. They are seeing roughly the same thing around the world, namely, few landfalling hurricanes, and not as many tropical waves making it to actual hurricane/cyclone/typhoon status. But, hey, we should be super worried about hurricanes caused by globull warming, because there were none before 1980. In fact, the word hurricane was introduced in 1980, if memory serves /sarc off.

Anyhow, The Daily Beast’s Howard Kurzt discusses the hype around Irene

It was raining in Manhattan on Sunday morning, and the dogged correspondents in their brightly colored windbreakers were getting wet.

But the apocalypse that cable television had been trumpeting had failed to materialize. And at 9 a.m., you could almost hear the air come out of the media’s hot-air balloon of constant coverage when Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm.

I’m going to have to agree with liberal Brad Friedman of The Brad Blog on this one: Kurtz is way out of line, and the photos Brad posts show it. Why? Because a hurricane is not just about wind. I highlighted yesterday that the surface wind speeds did not validate Irene being a Category 1 hurricane. But, what is the biggest danger from most hurricanes? Water. It’s the storm surge and torrential rains which become flash floods that kill and injure most people during a tropical storm. We witnessed the same thing in North Carolina back in 1999, when we had to deal with the massive rain dumped by Dennis and Floyd, turning most of the area east of I-95 into a swampland.

Did the politicians go overboard? No. They were smart to take precautions. What if Irene had, in fact, come ashore as a Cat 3, or even a possible Cat 4, then proceeded up the coast? The thing with these storms is Things Can Happen. They can die out. They can shift their track quickly. They can increase power quickly. You don’t take the chance.

Did the media go overboard? Of course. That’s what they do. To expect anything different would be like asking Obama to pay his “fair share” voluntarily. Not going to happen.

So, what happened? Weather. My own little theory is that a huge amount of dry air mixed in to Irene somewhere off the coast. I remember a period on Saturday when a band was coming around and approaching Raleigh, and the rain died out. Local meteorologists said it was because of dry air in the mix. I’m just speculating, but this could account for the lower surface level winds. Some have suggested that the winds aloft were faster. Well, could be. But the only thing that matters is the surface wind speeds, and generally what is measured. Especially since that’s where most of the instruments are.

Finally, here is Kennedy Airport

Kennedy should have been exposed to hurricane force wind speeds, or at least top end tropical storm speeds (greater than 38), yet the greatest reading was 39? I have many more screenshots, as well, from the NYC area, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Long Island, and Massachusetts.

4
  • Anonymous

    I was watching a movie when it was interrupted for Mr. Obama, Ms. Napolitino(sp?) and the head of FEMA.
    It was very uncomfortable to watch, Mr. Obama was trying to convey his handling of a catacalymic event and it was quite awkward. Especially at the end when he started popping out the ” I ” references and what he has and will be doing. Painful.

    I did notice two things during the broadcst:

    Mr. Obama is going completely grey, like every other President in my lifetime.

    The FOX network I was watching; I swear the little quips they were banner running under Mr. Obama were taking wry pokes at the President. Deservedly so as the whole thing was obviously a contrived political moment; the President showing he had been hoping for, counting on, a tragedy so as to have a crisis to exploit.

    • Anonymous

      I’ve noticed the gray hair too. All of the presidents in my lifetime have went gray in office but I can’t remember cliton or gwb going gray so fast.

      • Anonymous

        Mr. Clinton went completely grey through his second term if I recall correctly, so yeah took awhile.

        Good or bad at the job; being President is one heckufa stressful position.

    • Anonymous

      While I don’t really think the president can control the weather I am a big believer in holding everyone to the same standard.  So I will hold Obama personally to blame for any hurricane related damage that has occurred.  

    • Anonymous

      Putting is stressful. Ask Tiger Woods.

      • Anonymous

        They are both scoring well as of late.

        (Sarc)

      • Anonymous

        They are both scoring well as of late.

        (Sarc)

    • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

      I think President Obama has been gray a while now, but hid it during the campaign and last couple years.  The black/gray level in his hair varied several times in 2007-2008 almost at random (based on how well it had been touched up).  Most politicians do it; you really think Reagan had jet black hair?

  • JoeBrit

    Average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes show a distinct increment from 1851 through 2004, according to this National Hurricane Center data:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-4.pdf

    We need to keep in mind the global warming is not a recent phenomenon but has been going on throughout the Industrial Revolution up to this day. So yes, there is likely to be a global warming component to Irene.

    • Anonymous

      So if global warming is making hurricanes more common and worse, why haven’t they been…you know, getting more common and worse? Irene has been the only hurricane to sniff the mainland in years.

      Irene didn’t even qualify as a strong hurricane in the list of hurricanes to have hit the northeast. Those were in 1938, 1893, 1821, 1815, and 1645.

      I know, the climate was being ruined by all the steamboats in the 1800′s, the SUV of the Mark Twain era.

    • Anonymous

      I know you’re just a mindless troll but try a bit harder.  Your article makes no claims that hurricanes are trending upward due to MMGW or in fact trending upward at all.

      In reality they are doing nothing of the kind: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/hurricanes_making_landfall_in_the_us_vs_decade1.png

      Additionally there is no correlation between number of hurricanes and CO2 concentration. 

      • JoeBrit

        Correct. There is no reference to causes in the article. And….

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          So then your link is useless and not supported by all of the relevant data, thanks for admitting it!

    • http://www.thepiratescove.us/ William_Teach

      No, its not a recent phenomenon, its something that tends to happen for a couple hundred years between cool periods over the last 20,0000 years. Climate is not static, and never will be.

      Furthermore, there is a lot of data that storms are worse during college periods, due to the clashing of cold ans warm air.

      • JoeBrit

        Yeah right. And so the rest of us would like to read the data supporting this notion as it applies to ocean temps and the frequency of large storms like hurricanes and cyclones as they are know in the East.

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          The data is there, Slow Joe, it’s all over the web. And seriously refutes the notion the major storms are more frequent or stronger.

      • Anonymous

        “Climate is not static”

        Which could be why I never get an answer when I ask a fear monger what the climate should settle for us to know we’ve beat the problem.

      • JoeBrit

        But you don’t have that data concerning storm phenomena going back tens of thousands of years. Maybe you should stop referring to them, then.

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          You shouldn’t rely on less than complete information, which only backs a few decades, as it doesn’t come close to supporting your premise.

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          You shouldn’t rely on less than complete information, which only backs a few decades, as it doesn’t come close to supporting your premise.

    • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

      Do you even know read the charts provided, Slow Joe. Over that time frame, the average  number of hurricanes was 17.7 with 6 of them major. Every  decade since 1951 has been BELOW that average! That means your little chart completely disproves your meme!!!

      • JoeBrit

        Not so. Learn how to read charts and data:

        Table 7. Average number of tropical cyclones* which reached storm, hurricane and major hurricane strength for various periods. Updated from Neumann et al. (1999).

        • Martin Hale

          Neither the table you cite, nor the table bthewolf cites are adequate records upon which to base any conclusions about the frequency trend in Atlantic Basin TC’s. 

          The table bthewolf cites is only of landfalling tropical cyclones, which obviously misses all those TC’s which don’t make landfall.  The table you cite is a progressive cumulative data set which fails to show year by year (or even decade by decade) data arrayed over time.

          I would liken the table you cite to a frequency table of coin flips.  While over a short measured period, say 10 flips, you might have a huge disparity between the number of heads and the number of tails.  But as you add more observations, you’ll find that the ratio of heads to tails will become 1:1  Any comparison between a particular subset of flips to the overall average of flips is relatively meaningless.  Table 7 shows that as you include more years into the data, the averages decline, but that in and of itself is insufficient to show a trend

          In order to assess the hypothesis that MMCC is causing more hurricanes, you’d have to have a data set containing frequencies of TC’s in the Atlantic basin by year, and graph that out over time.  But you’d also have to figure a way to remove the bias introduced by better observational techniques which have occurred over time.  Prior to 1960, we had to rely entirely on shore-based and ship-based observations to detect and monitor TC’s.  After 1960, we could easily detect and monitor all TC’s via satellite observation.  A good analogy is the rapid rise in cancer rates as better diagnostic methods and techniques became available.  Prior to possessing the ability to diagnose some forms of cancer, the only way we detected them was through autopsy.  We have little to no idea of actual rates prior to the advent of modern diagnostics.

          Here’s a link to an Ams paper published by a group led by two Noaa scientists. 

          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1

          If I might, I’ll quote the Abstract in it’s entirety (emphasis added):

          Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late
          nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm
          frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously
          interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However,
          improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative
          interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the
          number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part
          of the recorded increase in TC counts.
          This study explores the influence
          of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency,
          using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found
          that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less)
          in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year
          in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year
          since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased
          little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC
          frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily
          due to an increase in very short-lived TCs.

          The authors also
          undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship
          observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of
          missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with
          durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated
          numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived
          Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time
          series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century,
          with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series.

          Thus,
          to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC
          counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in
          very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it
          is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a
          real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible
          that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and
          quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.

          These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better
          monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing
          numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.

          In other words, the counts of TC frequency have, in the modern age, included storms which would not have been detected earlier either because of where they occurred or how long they lasted.

           

          • http://www.thepiratescove.us/ William_Teach

            And, another big problem is that we do not have records going back over thousands of years in order to make comparisons. The warmists highlight specific cherry picked time periods without being able to compare to say, the 1700′s, during the LIA. It’s like only comparing how crazy a person is and only using the time period when they became crazy as a baseline.

          • JoeBrit

            The significant period we are discussing is the one in which greenhouse gases became more plentiful in the atmosphere, the period 1851 to the present being highly relevant, the Industrial Age.

          • Anonymous

            But you’d also have to figure a way to remove the bias introduced by
            better observational techniques which have occurred over time.

            Careful what you wish for.  Whenever they “correct” for bias they always do so in a way that supports their original assumption.

            So in this case the correction would be to baseline everything prior to global warming (let’s say 1970) to zero, statistical anomalies meaning nothing and significantly increase the rates after words to account for (insert some meaningless jargon). 

          • JoeBrit

            The data are what they are; nobody fabricated or deleted data.

          • JoeBrit

            Bullshit. If you compare the average storms/hurricanes between 1851 and 2004, with the average for the past ten years, and find the latte significantly higher than the former, you have a highly reliable finding. Now you can argue that methods in earlier decades were less sophisticated and accurate, but you can’t argue that storms and hurricanes were somehow missed or not recorded. These are too eventful phenomena to go by unnoticed.

          • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

            That’s nothing like what the data says MORON!

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          Read the chart again, dipshit. Hurricane numbers have dropped in number and severity since 1951. Read the actual data not a paragraph  doesn’t even mention data!

    • Anonymous

      “We need to keep in mind the global warming is not a recent phenomenon”

      Correct: It has been going on since the peak of the little Ice age.

      • Anonymous

        Hey Joe where did you go?
        I agree with you and then you just leave me hanging? No thank you Spikey? Nothing?

      • http://www.cavalierx.com CavalierX

        The last great ice age ended around 10,000 years ago (and technically is still ending). That’s just recent history, a tiny dot on the timeline. Global warming and cooling have been happening for several billion years now, and the Leftists have yet to provide a single shred of evidence that we’re “at fault” for a natural process. Next they’ll be blaming humans for that mean old moon pulling at the poor ocean like that, disturbing all the little fishies as they try to mate. Oh, hell; I hope I’m not giving them any new ideas…

        • Anonymous

          I do get a kick out of them though.

          Their arrogance is; pure humor!

      • Jfisher17

        Actually, it’s been going on (and off) for 4.5 billion years.

  • Anonymous

    Any sensible person would be thanking their lucky stars that this hurricane/tropical storm was so relatively light, and didn’t cause half or even a quarter of the damage that it was expected to.

    Instead, the media and the libs are angry and disappointed that it didn’t turn into a disaster for Obama to preside over and a global warming talking point.

    What kind of ideology creates people like this?

    • Anonymous

      Actually no they arent but thanks for making shit up on the spot.

      • Anonymous

        Tried reading the post? We had hype, hype, hype from the media and the left, and then suddenly…silence.

        The only time a liberal goes quiet after screaming his head off is when he realizes that the issue is no longer politically valuable to him. See, for reference, Cindy Sheehan…used by the left until the public tired of her, and then discarded.

        Eventually global warming overall will be dropped. More and more people are growing wise to the scam, after all…

    • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

      Well the media was just looking for a big story because the news cycle was slow.  But yeah, a lot of people were hoping for a huge event that would showcase how great and prepared the president was, finally, this time.

  • Fail_Baby_Fail

    Im with Bachman God did it……

    • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

      Quote(s)? Or are you just making shit up again?

      • Anonymous

        How stupid are you bthewolf?

        “I don’t know how much God has to do to get the attention of the
        politicians. We’ve had an earthquake; we’ve had a hurricane. He said,
        ‘Are you going to start listening to me here?’Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62217.html#ixzz1WSAG4U15
         

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          Not so stupid that I’d take anyone’s word for it. And I don’t follow Bachmann around like a puppy, what_a_tard. So asking for a source isn’t stupid!

        • http://www.cavalierx.com CavalierX

          Even in your context-free cut-and-paste her statement stands out as an obvious joke.

      • Fail_Baby_Fail

        See whats up comment…….

        Yes she really said that…

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          And What_a_tards link doesn’t match the video to the supposed transcript. Nor does the video say what you two say it does! So either someone is selectively editing video, or putting words in her mouth.

    • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

      If you believe in an all-powerful, all-knowing God, it would be stupid to think otherwise.

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