Shocking New Poll Could Reveal the GOP Nominee

Shocking New Poll Could Reveal the GOP Nominee

There hasn’t been a good poll in the State of Florida for quite some time now, but that was before Donald Trump. Now, a shocking new poll has come out this morning, and it’s saying an awful lot with it’s results…

Screenshot 2016-02-25 at 12.26.44 PM

There was no data to suggest how Jeb Bush’s withdrawal might affect voting in that state, so Donald Trump’s big advantage there seemed as though it might be misleading. After all, one would assume that Bush’s traditional-Republican support in his home state would likely shift to the other traditional-Republican Floridian, Marco Rubio.

If you are Rubio, there is no way of looking at this besides that it is an unmitigated disaster Trump leads easily with almost every demographic in the poll. Rubio only leads — and does so narrowly — with college-educated Floridians, a group that was half the GOP electorate in 2012. Trump leads among those who have no degree by a 2-to-1 margin. That was the other half of the voters.

There are margins of error at play, and we’re still 20 days out and so on, but, again: disaster. About a fifth of the Republicans in Florida, 21 percent, say they’d never back Donald Trump. The percentage saying that about Rubio? Seventeen.

This poll also gives the lie to the newly popular idea that if John Kasich were to drop out, Rubio’s path to the nomination would be cleared. If Kasich had dropped out before Nevada, and Rubio had gained all that support, Donald Trump would have won by 18 points instead of 22. If Kasich dropped out before Florida and every single one of his votes went to Rubio, Rubio would lose Florida by 9 points. If Ted Cruz and Ben Carson also dropped out, Rubio would need to pick up nearly two-thirds of those votes to beat Trump — in his home state.

The reason we are talking about Kasich having to drop out is that Kasich doesn’t have much support. So re-allocating even all of that “establishment” vote to Marco Rubio doesn’t add much value to his candidacy.

Allocating all of Kasich’s vote is faulty in its own right. NBC’s most recent national poll with SurveyMonkey explored the second choices of supporters of each remaining Republican. A quarter of Bush supporters didn’t know where they’d go. Eleven percent went to Trump, 19 to Rubio. A quarter of Kasich supporters said they’d go to Rubio — but 16 percent said they’d back Trump. A fifth of Carson backers would go to Trump, as would a quarter of Cruz supporters. These numbers vary by state, and so on, but the point is obvious: Voters are not moving between candidates as a bloc.

Things are really starting to heat up, I almost want to go hibernate, and come out when it’s time to vote. I mean…the anxiety!

Leave a Comment

Share this!

Enjoy reading? Share it with your friends!

Send this to a friend