The Generic Ballot Numbers Point To Democratic Devastation In November

Typically, if you ask the public whether they’d prefer a Democrat or Republican in office, they tend to say they prefer Democrats. Now, those numbers don’t quite translate at the polls because Republican voters are more likely to vote. That’s why, for example, a poll of adults always looks several points better for the Democrats than a poll of likely voters.

Still, if the Democrats have a big enough lead, it indicates they’re on track to swamp the Republicans. For example in 2008, the Democrats had a 53-41 advantage over the GOP.

On the other hand, Republicans rarely lead on the generic ballot. In fact, as Gallup noted back in April, it almost never occurs — but oh boy, when it does? Look out Democrats:

A Republican advantage among all registered voters in midterm elections has been rare in Gallup’s 60-year history of tracking congressional voting preferences, happening only a few times each in the 1950, 1994, and 2002 election cycles — all years in which Republicans had strong Election Day showings.

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So, how’s the generic ballot looking this time around?

According to Rasmussen, the GOP is at 44% vs. 37% for the Democrats.

In 1994, when the GOP picked up 54 seats in the House? In late October, the GOP was ahead on the generic ballot by 48% to 45%. In November, it was tied up at 45%.

Now, it’s worth noting that Republicans shouldn’t get cocky about these numbers. They can change between now and November. Moreover, political polling is no guarantee of success. That’s why they have elections. That being said, this is the year to go all in to donate, help with campaigns, and do all you can — because we may have an opportunity to make the sort:  of:  EPIC gains they’ll still be talking about in 20-30 years.

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