Poll: Trump Beats Hillary 41 To 39

Well, now, this is interesting

(Rasmussen) Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.

But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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Here’s where it gets really interesting

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate.

There are quite a few ways to read that, one of which is that Trump’s message appeals to Democrats, because quite a bit of Trump’s message is the same as the Democrat’s message. I suspect these are more of the squishy Democrats, though.

Trump beats Hillary with men, while Hillary wins in similar fashion with women. Hillary has a small lead among those under 40, usually a reliable Dem voting block. 25% would prefer someone else. Hillary kills it among Blacks, but Trump leads 48-33 among Whites. Remember, Blacks account for less than 14% of the population.

This all said, national polls are cool, but it will be the state polls that matter. If Trump wants to win, he will have to take enough states to win the Electoral College. He will most likely not be able to count on some of the Northern states he did really well in. What’s the chance he can win in places like Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, and his home state of New York? Nor can he count on the liberal left-coast states.

If Trump wins Indiana tonight, it is pretty much over for Ted Cruz. If that happens, here’s my message: you don’t have to like Trump, but politics often pits a bad choice against a worse choice. A President Trump would be much better than a President Hillary. The GOP still needs to retain the House (little chance of losing it) and the Senate (there’s a chance of losing it if Hillary wins). With a Republican (or, should that be “Republican”?) in the White House, the Party might be able to get some things done, such as repealing and replacing Obamacare. Wait any longer, and it will be impossible.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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