Analysis Of The Three Big Races Today: New Jersey, Virginia, & New York.

New Jersey

In the New Jersey Governor’s race, it’s a three way fight between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie, and Independent Chris Daggett.

New Jersey has been a heartbreaking state for Republicans because time after time, in race after race, the GOP candidates have started off strong only to be swamped by the Democrats at the end of the race.

Further complicating matters in this race, Independent Chris Daggett is draining off support for Christie.

Looking at the polling numbers, what you find is that Corzine is consistently polling in the 40-43% range while Daggett is polling at roughly 10%. That means Corzine’s top number is probably somewhere between 43% and 46% of the electorate. In a two way race, he would be dead meat.

But, it’s not a two way race. The 24,000 dollar question is whether Daggett’s voters are going to continue to stick with him or whether they’re going to decide it’s futile and then peel off to vote for Christie.

Were I a gambling man, I’d bet enough of voters move from Daggett to Christie to put him over the top.

Analysis: Slight Edge to Chris Christie: 60% chance of a victory and a Republican takeover.


Democrat Bob McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (D) are going at it for the governorship. Virginia’s current governor is a Democrat and Obama handily won the state; so you’d think this would be an easy win for the Dems.

However, it’s a Republican year and Creigh Deeds has run a terrible campaign. McDonnell has been ahead of Deeds in every poll since June. In the last 11 polls, McDonnell has been ahead by double digits. He should win in a walk.

Analysis: Likely Republican takeover. (90/10) that McDonnell wins.

New York — 23rd district

In a special election for John McHugh’s seat, the Constitution Party’s Doug Hoffman is taking on Democrat Bill Owens. The “Republican” Dede Scozzafava has left the race and has endorsed the Democrat, but her name still remains on the ballot. Complicating matters further, it sounds as if Owens will have a better ground game in place, but in a low-turnout election, Hoffman’s supporters seem likely to be more energized.

So, how will it all shake out? There have only been two polls since Scozzafava left the race. PPP has Hoffman up by 17. Sienna has him up by 5 points. Additionally Owens has yet to break 36% in a poll.

Analysis: (75/25%) chance that Hoffman wins. That means it’s leaning towards a Constitution Party takeover of the district.

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