Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts: Turnout Matters has some interesting analysis:

Turnout Will Matter — The big spread in results among the polls, and differences apparent within two of them, are all consistent in supporting one finding: The lower the turnout, the better the odds for Scott Brown. These differences indicate that the voters most interested and most likely to vote are Republican, while Democrats are more blase.

Consider the differences in the table below from within Globe/UNH and Rasmussen surveys. Both show a dead even race among the most interested and certain voters, while Coakley leads by huge double-digit margins among all other voters.

The Republicans and independents are motivated. Remember New Jersey and Virginia. Also, health care reform, which Massachusetts already suffers with thanks to Mitt Romney polls badly. In addition, as Leon Wolf pointed out on my podcast, no one in Massachusetts is particularly thrilled with Deval Patrick, either. Massachusetts got an Axelrod hope and change before America did and that’s not working out so well, either.

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It’s astonishing to even be having this conversation. I really didn’t think any Republican would ever have a chance in Ted Kennedy’s seat and ignored the calls for fundraising help a while back. What can I say? I didn’t want to expend capital asking people for money on a lost cause.

Turns out that Scott Brown’s candidacy is NOT a lost cause. Turnout could create an absolute disaster for Democrats. It ain’t over ’til it’s over. So, join in and fight. They money bombed Brown last night and he earned nearly 200K as of this writing. I think the grassroots, yet again, are making a difference.

To donate to Scott Brown go here.

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