Betting Odds Have Predicted the GOP Nominee – And It’s Not Who You Would Think….

Betting Odds Have Predicted the GOP Nominee – And It’s Not Who You Would Think….

This didn’t leave me with any kind of good feels…in fact, this made me rather sick to my stomach, and I had just finished celebrating the establishment being knocked down to 3rd place…

Marco Rubio

One way to predict elections is to look at betting odds on them. Betting statistics on candidates actually have a record of beating polls in predicting the success of a candidate. Among the reasons are that some have inside information, factors other than polls are taken into account, and the wisdom of the crowds (groups of individuals know more than experts).

Fox News’ John Stossel and Maxim Lott run the website electionbettingodds.com, which aggregates betting statistics on candidates and can therefore calculate their odds of winning the election.

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Clinton’s odds of winning the Democrat primary was 81 percent, actually up 1 percent from last week. Despite Bernie’s close race, bettors don’t think this means what the pundits do.

Where bettors are revising their odds is in who the Republican nominee will be. Last night’s caucus turned the odds on their head.

While Trump was given a 42.6 percent chance of winning the Republican primary prior to the caucus, his odds tanked to 26.5 percent. Despite Cruz’s victory, his odds only rose 1.2 percentage points to 12.6 percent.

odds

According to this…Hillary is going to be the next President. I happen to believe that America still has more smart than stupid people…so for my own sanity, I’m calling this BS.

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