Analysis Of The May GOP Straw Polls Results

After they filtered out everyone who put Ron Paul in first place to get rid of the enormous number of spammers who hit the poll, the online GOP Straw Polls had more than 9,000 votes cast this month from all around the blogosphere.

Here’s how the candidate acceptability numbers (the percentage of people who say the candidate is acceptable, minus the number who say the candidate is unacceptable) broke out.

First of all, here are the Right Wing News numbers,

Fred Thompson: +66.8%
Duncan Hunter: +52.5%
Mitt Romney: +38.2%
Newt Gingrich: +31.5%
Tom Tancredo: +24.1
Mike Huckabee: 10.6%
Rudy Giuliani: -6.7%
Sam Brownback: -29.5%
James Gilmore: -32.5%
Tommy Thompson: -36.1%
John McCain: -67.4%

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Next, here are the numbers for the entire blogosphere with how much each candidate has gone up or down from the last month’s numbers in parentheses…

Fred Thompson: +53.4% (-1.7%)
Mitt Romney: +41.2% (+7.9%)
Newt Gingrich: +24.9% (+8.2%)
Duncan Hunter: +21.8% (+12.2%)
Mike Huckabee: +12% (+20.5%)
Tom Tancredo: +2.8% (+10.3%)
Rudy Giuliani: +0.4% (-21%)
Sam Brownback: -14.3% (+3.6%)
James Gilmore: -35.8% (-3.4%)
Tommy Thompson: -37.5% (-11.2%)
John McCain: -55.5% (-26.9%)
Ron Paul: -62.3% N/A

Let’s analyze these numbers, shall we?

First off, these numbers seem to have been influenced greatly by the stands the candidates have taken on the Senate immigration bill, which is about as popular as head lice and rabies put together amongst conservatives in the blogosphere.

That makes it odd that Fred just treaded water this month because he came out strongly against the bill. Of course, if you’re going to be treading water, doing it in the top spot with more than a 10 point cushion between you and 2nd place is not a bad spot to do it in. But, what we may be seeing is Fred starting to turn from a mythical, magical reincarnation of Reagan who’ll save the Republican party into a real candidate with warts and all — or it could be just a statistical blip. It’s too early to say yet.

The next 3 candidates, Mitt, Newt, and Duncan Hunter (whom I consult for) all got nice anti-Senate amnesty bill bounces. A while back, it looked like Mitt had peaked, but that doesn’t appear to be the case any more. Duncan Hunter? He’s the blogosphere’s favorite 2nd tier candidate, but unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be helping him a lot in the real world polls. Newt? I still don’t think he’s running.

Next up is Mike Huckabee, who is the biggest gainer overall in the poll. Obviously, Huckabee has benefitted quite a bit from two excellent debate performances.

Then, we have Tom Tancredo. Tom got a nice bounce off immigration being in the headlines, enough to get him a positive acceptance rating, but still — +2.8% has got to be a disappointment for a guy who has his sort of fan base.

Now, surprisingly, in 7th place, we have Rudy Giuliani at .4%. This is Rudy’s weakest ever showing in the poll as it probably has a lot to do with his reluctant and belated condemnation of the Senate amnesty bill and the way he choked on the abortion issue in the debates. People have been predicting for a long time that once conservative voters got to know Rudy that they’d turn on him. That may be exactly what’s starting to happen.

Out of the “unacceptable contenders,” there are only two people who merit mention. First off is John McCain, who dropped like a piano off the Sears tower after this immigration bill hit the news. Of course, in his case, he has gone from being unpopular with conservatives on the net to being REALLY, amazingly unpopular.

Then there’s Ron Paul, in last place. Granted, you have to take his numbers with a bit of salt, because all of the people who put him in first place were filtered out. On the other hand, probably 95%+ of the people who put him in first place were spammers. So, once you take the spammers out of the equation, he’s duking it out with John McCain to be the least popular candidate in the field. Maybe he’d be a little more popular, maybe he’d be a little less, but long story short, Paul’s strongly disliked on the right side of the blogosphere.

I consult for the Duncan Hunter campaign.

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